Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 412 PM EDT Sun May 09 2021 Valid 00Z Mon May 10 2021 - 00Z Wed May 12 2021 ...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain to occur over the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Southern Plains through Tuesday evening... ...Late-season snowfall is likely across the Northern/Central Rockies and High Plains with much colder than average temperatures... ...Warm and dry conditions will cause fire danger in the southwestern U.S. and California... A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic westward to the Ohio Valley, then southwestward to the Southern Plains will move off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Coast by Monday evening. The remaining front will linger across the Gulf Coast States and Southeast through Tuesday evening. The system will produce severe thunderstorms and heavy rain over the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Southern Plains through Tuesday morning. The SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Southern Plains through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gust, hail, and a few tornadoes. Some of the storms will have a 10% or greater probability of producing hail two inches or greater over parts of Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Southern Plains through Monday morning. The thunderstorms will also produce heavy rain. The WPC has issued a Slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and the Southern Plains through Monday morning. The hazards associated with the rain are scattered flash flooding, where urban areas, roads, and small streams are the most vulnerable. The northern part of the system will produce rain over parts of the Northeast through Monday evening. However, on Monday, the Showers and thunderstorms will extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic across the Gulf Coast into the Southern Plains. The heavy rain threat will be slightly less and confined to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gust, hail, and a few tornadoes. On Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will continue along and near the front from the Southeast westward to Texas. Also, on Monday night into Tuesday evening, energy from a weakening upper-level low over the Great Lakes will move over the Northeast. Rain will develop over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley overnight Monday ending by Tuesday morning. On Tuesday, rain will develop over parts of the Northeast, continuing into Tuesday evening. The Northern/Central Rockies will be underneath broad upper-level troughing, with much below-average temperatures. The cold temperatures will support snow across the Northern and Central Rockies. Rain will also develop over lower elevations. Furthermore, Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for portions of the Great Lakes. Rain will develop over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains overnight Sunday. On Monday, rain will move over parts of the Central Plains through Tuesday evening, while pockets of higher elevation snow continue over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies. Meanwhile, temperatures will be slightly above average over the Southwest and California with dry and windy conditions. An Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather for interior portions of California and into the Southwest, Southern Rockies, due to the dry and windy conditions through Tuesday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php