Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 352 PM EDT Fri May 14 2021 Valid 00Z Sat May 15 2021 - 00Z Mon May 17 2021 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains Friday night through Saturday... ...There is an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest Friday and Saturday... A quasi-stationary front will be the impetus for the spread of scattered to severe thunderstorms across much of the Plains and Mississippi Valley over the next couple of days. Showers and thunderstorms are expected for the Rockies and parts of the Plains tonight. A new area of surface low pressure will develop along this boundary, over the foothills of the Rockies, tonight and begin pulling moisture and warm air into the Plains. This will lead to destabilization and the Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of the Central/Southern Plains through tomorrow. As this system organizes, a warm front will develop and act as a forcing mechanism/focus for scattered thunderstorm activity across the Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley through Saturday before spreading into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic by Sunday. Rainfall rates will remain low enough to not warrant any serious flash flood concerns, despite there being a likelihood of multiple inches of rain falling over parts of the Central Central/Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday. Elsewhere, parts of the Southwest and Lower Great Basin are under a Critical Fire Weather threat through the weekend due to southwesterly flow leading to dry conditions. Red Flag warnings are in effect for these areas, as well as Northern California into southern Oregon where dry isolated thunderstorms may develop. Much of the Northwest into the Northern Plains as well as New England will experience a warm-up while the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast go through a bit of a cool spell this weekend. Temperatures are likely to plunge as low as 25 degrees below normal for parts of the North Carolina coast this evening. Kebede Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php