Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 347 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Valid 12Z Sun May 16 2021 - 12Z Tue May 18 2021 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains through Monday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into parts of the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coast through Monday morning... ...There is an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest through Monday morning... A quasi-stationary front extends from Middle Mississippi Valley westward to the Central/Southern High Plains, then into the Great Basin through Tuesday morning. A dryline will develop over parts of the Southern High Plains, making a daily oscillation eastward. Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the Plains and the Mississippi Valley that will help produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Tuesday. Additionally, the showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies into the Great Basin. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains through Monday morning. The main threats from the severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gust, hail, and a few tornadoes. Furthermore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into parts of the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coast through Monday morning. The heavy rain associated with the thunderstorms will produce localized areas of flash flooding. The areas that are most vulnerable to the heavy rain are urban areas, roads, and small streams. Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Great Lakes will produce rain over the Great Lakes into parts of the Northeast expand into parts of the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening. The rain will taper off over the Great Lakes and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic overnight Sunday. On Sunday, the light rain will expand into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. The rain will redevelop over parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday afternoon/evening, tapering off overnight. An upper-level low over portions of California on Sunday will move into parts of the Central/Southern Rockies by Tuesday. The energy will produce scattered rain over parts of California on Sunday. Additionally, as the upper-level low moves eastward, dry conditions and gusty winds have led to an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southwest, Southern Rockies, and parts of the Southern High Plains through Monday morning. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php