Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 431 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021 Valid 12Z Sat May 22 2021 - 12Z Mon May 24 2021 ...Heavy rain and some gusty winds are expected across eastern Texas today after a low pressure center makes landfall across central Texas coast this morning... ...Thunderstorms could become severe ahead of a cold front through the High Plains for the next few days... ...Late-season mountain snow is expected to pick up once again across western Montana on Sunday... ...Critical Risks of fire danger remain in place for portions of the Four Corners region... Winds circulating around a large high pressure system centered over the eastern U.S. will continue to direct a stream of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico toward the western Gulf states. Meanwhile, a low pressure center that formed yesterday in the western Gulf of Mexico is now making landfall on the central Texas coast. The chance for the circulation to develop into a tropical cyclone is diminishing. However, the interaction of the circulation with land could trigger bouts of thunderstorms containing heavy downpours as it tracks further inland today. The low pressure area is expected to weaken and dissipate by tonight but tropical moisture will continue to stream into eastern Texas for the remainder of the weekend. Additional showers and thunderstorms can be expected to form anytime under this unstable air mass. Meanwhile, a low pressure system is forecast to develop and intensify as it tracks generally northward across the Rockies through the weekend. A strong cold front associated with the system is expected to trigger thunderstorms across the High Plains during the weekend. Some of these storms could become severe especially during late afternoon into early in the evening. Behind the cold front, a deep upper-level trough/low settling into the western U.S. is forecast to bring temperatures below normal for much of the western U.S. through the weekend. High temperatures are forecast to be generally 15 to 25 degrees below average for the Intermountain West, and parts of Montana could stay 25 to 30 degrees below average, with record lows possible. These cold temperatures will continue to support wet snow for the higher elevations from the Sierra Nevada to the Intermountain West and northern Rockies today. However, as the aforementioned low pressure system intensifies, the snow is forecast to redevelop and become steadier on Sunday across the higher elevations of the northern Rockies and especially over western Montana Sunday night. The low pressure system should continue to track northward into the Canadian prairies by Monday morning but the snow is forecast to linger across the northern Rockies. For the lower elevations, a steady cold rain is expected on Sunday across the northern High Plains with gusty winds as the low passes just to the east. In stark contrast to the cold and snow in the West, very warm temperatures are expanding into the eastern U.S. where afternoon high temperatures reaching into the 90s are forecast during the weekend. For the upper Midwest, Great Lakes and northeastern U.S., showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front before cooler and drier air from Canada moves into these areas later on Sunday. Farther south, gusty winds across the interior West together with dry conditions will continue to elevate the risk of wildfires. Critical fire risk is forecast for the Four Corners states through the weekend. Kong Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php