Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 311 PM EDT Wed Jun 09 2021 Valid 00Z Thu Jun 10 2021 - 00Z Sat Jun 12 2021 ...Flooding remains likely for portions of the Mid-South as heavy rain continues to fall across areas where very heavy amounts have already occurred... ...Scattered severe storms are likely Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains... ...Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions are in place across much of the Interior West... A slow-moving area of low pressure will continue to produce periods of very heavy rainfall across portions of the Mid South Wednesday night into Thursday. These heavy rains, in addition to the near-historic rains that have already occurred across portions of the region, will likely worsen the already dangerous flooding conditions occurring across portions of southern Arkansas and northern Mississippi. Heavy rain is also a concern farther to the east across much of the Tennessee and lower Ohio valleys, into the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic region, as plenty of moisture spreads across the region. As noted, this system will be slow to move move east. As the threat for locally heavy rains continues across portions of the Tennessee and Ohio valleys on Thursday, the threat is expected to increase across the Mid Atlantic beginning Thursday and continuing into Friday. A cold front, sinking south into the region, is forecast to increase the potential for organized heavy rains, raising the threat for localized flash-flooding concerns across the region. Meanwhile, the ongoing heatwave across the Northeast will begin to subside. Following one more day of well-above normal temperatures on Wednesday, temperatures are forecast to drop off by several degrees on Thursday, followed by an additional decrease on Friday as the previously noted front drops south through the Northeast into the Mid Atlantic. In the West, widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon and evening from the northern Rockies into central Montana. Some of these storms are expected to become severe -- producing damaging winds and large hail. Then on Thursday, scattered severe storms are likely during the afternoon and evening across portion of the northern Plains. A strong area of low pressure is expected to intensify east of the northern Rockies. This system is forecast to help support the development of severe storms capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes from central Montana and eastern Wyoming to the Dakotas and Nebraska. Gusty winds will accompany this system's trailing cold front as it moves across the West over the next couple days. With no precipitation expected, Red Flag Warnings for critical fire weather conditions are in effect today from the central and southern Sierra Nevada to western Colorado. On Thursday, critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona northeastward through central Wyoming. Pereira Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php