Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 14 2021 - 12Z Wed Jun 16 2021 ...Thunderstorms are possible in the East and could be severe in the Mid-Atlantic region today... ...A heat wave in the western and central U.S. will be record-breaking this workweek, and lead to fire danger... Multiple weak fronts combining with moist air will lead to the potential for thunderstorms in the East. An upper-level trough pushing into the Great Lakes region will provide support for the thunderstorms to possibly become severe in the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon into tonight. High winds are likely the main threat as storms could congeal into a squall line, and the Storm Prediction Center has delineated a Slight Risk of severe weather. Isolated flash flooding could occur in portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as well. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms are possible in parts of the Gulf Coast states and the Carolinas over the next couple of days. The Florida peninsula in particular could see heavy downpours, which could lead to isolated flash flooding--the urban areas of the Miami metro area are of concern. Additionally, the High Plains should see another day of isolated to scattered thunderstorms today into tonight. A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for west-central Texas, while a Marginal Risk of severe weather is forecast for northern/central portions of the High Plains. Meanwhile, a strong upper-level ridge is in place across western and central parts of the U.S., causing hot temperatures that will continue for several days in some areas. Temperatures well into the 110s are forecast for the next few days in the Desert Southwest, and temperatures exceeding 100 as far north as Montana especially tomorrow will be 25+ degrees above average. Dozens (possibly hundreds) of daily record high maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be set over the next few days in California, Intermountain West, Desert Southwest, Rockies, and High Plains. Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches as well as Heat Advisories are in effect. Given the heat, dry conditions, and gusty winds, Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather are in place across the Great Basin and portions of southern California through at least Tuesday. The exception to the Western heat will be in the Pacific Northwest, where a cold front is expected to cause cooler temperatures and rain chances that could shift into the Northern Great Basin as well by Tuesday. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php