Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 16 2021 - 12Z Fri Jun 18 2021 ...Dangerous heat to continue across portions of the West and Northern/Central Plains, with record-breaking temperatures and fire danger in some areas... ...Storms could be severe in the Midwest over the next couple of days... ...Scattered thunderstorms are expected across Florida in particular today and Thursday, and tropical rains will approach the central Gulf Coast by Friday... A strong upper-level ridge centered across the Four Corners region will help sustain a substantial heat wave for the majority of the western U.S. over the next several days, with the northern and central U.S. also seeing periods of hot weather. Temperatures well into the 110s into the 120s are forecast for the Desert Southwest, and temperatures over 100 degrees are expected for central/northern portions of the Plains today. Dozens (possibly hundreds) of daily record high maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be set over the next few days in California, the Intermountain West, Desert Southwest, Rockies, and Central/Northern Plains. By Thursday, the summer heat will push southward into the Central Plains, as well as expanding west into the central valleys of California. Widespread Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories have been issued throughout eight states, from California to South Dakota and Nebraska. Residents enduring the ongoing dangerous stretch of heat are advised to stay indoors and seek air-conditioned buildings, stay hydrated, and take frequent breaks if engaging in outdoor activities. Given the heat, dry conditions, and gusty winds, fire danger is also a concern throughout much of the West and toward the north-central U.S., and Elevated Risks of fire weather are in place, along with the possibility of some dry thunderstorms in the Four Corners states. The exception to the hot West will be in the Northwest today, with cooler air in place behind a cold front. Just ahead of that frontal system, showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Dakotas into the Midwest today and tonight, and focusing in the Midwest and Great Lakes on Thursday. Some storms could be strong to severe today, but it appears the greater threat for severe weather will be on Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe weather outlooked then, with tornadoes, wind, and hail all threats with the storms, along with isolated flash flooding. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible across the Gulf Coast region over the next couple of days. While storms are not expected to be severe, there is a risk for isolated flash flooding from heavy downpours over the Florida peninsula today and tonight. Then, rain chances will increase by Friday along central parts of the Gulf Coast, as tropical moisture and a low pressure system that is being monitored for tropical cyclone development make their way toward the area. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php