Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 432 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Valid 00Z Tue Jun 22 2021 - 00Z Thu Jun 24 2021 ...Showers and thunderstorms to produce severe weather today in the Tennessee Valley and areas northeast; excessive rainfall along the Gulf Coast, Mississippi Delta, and into the Allegheny Plateau... ...Dangerous and record-breaking heat wanes across California and the Southwest, while expanding into the Pacific Northwest... ...Fire weather conditions forecast across the Great Basin... On the heels of Tropical Storm Claudette, a strong cold front arcing from the Great Lakes into southern Colorado is forecast to serve as a catalyst for active weather this week across the CONUS. Ahead of the front, a plume of rich tropical moisture leftover from Claudette remains in place. Accordingly, expect this week to be active with heavy rain and thunderstorm activity through Wednesday. Today, a large area is highlighted for a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall concerns ahead of the cold front along the Gulf Coast, further north in the Mississippi River Delta, and into the Pittsburgh Metro. Some areas, particularly along the Central Gulf Coast from Southeast Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle are particularly sensitive to additional heavy rain in light of heavy rainfall from Claudette this past weekend. In addition to the flash flood threat, an Enhanced Risk of severe weather has been highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center over portions of the Northeast, with a Slight Risk extending through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A myriad of Severe Thunderstorm Watches currently extend from New Hampshire into North-Central Tennessee ahead of developing thunderstorms. The risk of heavy rain continues tomorrow with the eastern progression of the front; a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall runs from the Carolina Coastal Plains, through Central Georgia, and into North Florida. A Marginal Risk of severe weather is also in effect over the same region. Elsewhere, the high heat over most of the western U.S. will end as the temperature becomes more average. However, there is a potential for record-breaking high minimum temperatures across the Northwest today, with above average temperatures all around the region. Dry high pressure will facilitate a fire weather risk today through Wednesday in the Great Basin. A Critical Risk of fire weather is forecast by the Storm Prediction Center through tomorrow, with an additional risk area highlighted on the 23rd. With respect to the track of Tropical Storm Claudette: Claudette is forecast to move northeastward over the Western Atlantic off the Northeast Coast towards the Canadian Maritimes by Wednesday. Check the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center for the most up-to-date track and intensity of Claudette. Asherman/Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php