Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 324 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 23 2021 - 12Z Fri Jun 25 2021 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains through Thursday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley Thursday through Friday morning... ...Fire weather conditions forecast across the Great Basin... A front that extends from the Southeast westward to the Southern/Central Plains will be quasi-stationary through Friday. Ample moisture pooling along the boundary will help produce showers and thunderstorms along and near the front through Friday over the Southeast and the Gulf Coast States. A second front moving southward out of South-Central Canada will move toward the Great lakes and stall overnight Thursday. The boundary will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest through Friday. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and hail. The severe thunderstorm threat increases from Thursday into Friday. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. The excessive rainfall threat increases on Thursday, too. With the forecast of heavy rain, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley from Thursday into Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable through Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a plume of moisture surges into the Southwest and Southern California on Wednesday and waning by Thursday evening. Impulses of upper-level energy moving around an upper-level high over the U. S. and Mexican border will trigger showers and thunderstorms over parts of Southern California and the Southwest on Wednesday morning. The showers and thunderstorms will expand into parts of the Great Basin and the Central/Southern Rockies through Thursday morning. Additional upper-level energy will come over the top of the upper-level ridge producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern High Plains into the Great Basin and Central Rockies. The showers and thunderstorms will expand into the Northern/Central Plains on Friday. Elsewhere, warm, dry, and windy surface conditions in the Central Great Basin and Southwest will create favorable conditions for fire weather, with a Critical Risk area encompassing much of southern Wyoming. Additionally, dry thunderstorms with isolated lightning strikes will be possible over the Northern Great Basin, where dry fuels are present, creating another risk area for fire weather. Red Flag Warnings are currently in effect for portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest with these conditions in place. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php