Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 24 2021 - 12Z Sat Jun 26 2021 ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Western Ohio Valley through Saturday morning... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley through Friday morning... ...Fire weather concerns are forecast across the Northern Great Basin and Northern California; heat returns to the Pacific Northwest on Saturday... A front moving southward across the Upper Midwest will move to the Great Lakes and stall overnight Thursday through Saturday. The boundary will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest through Saturday. The WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers through Saturday morning. The excessive rainfall threat continues over parts of the area and expands eastward into parts of the Ohio Valley on Friday into Saturday morning. Moreover, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes. There is a 10% or greater probability of wind gust of 65 knots or greater over parts of the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Additionally, there is a 10% or greater probability of two-inch or great hail over parts of the Central Plains through Friday morning. The severe thunderstorm threat decreases slightly on Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, a front that extends from the Southeast westward to the Central Plains will be quasi-stationary through Friday evening before the boundary starts to dissipate on Saturday. With ample moisture pooling along the boundary that helps produce showers and thunderstorms along and near the front through Friday night over the Southeast and the Gulf Coast States. Additionally, a plume of moisture surging into the Southwest and Southern California on start to waning by Thursday evening. Impulses of upper-level energy moving around an upper-level high over the U. S. and Mexican border will trigger showers and thunderstorms over parts of Southern California and the Southwest ending on Friday morning. The showers and thunderstorms will expand into parts of the Great Basin and the Central/Southern Rockies through Thursday evening. In the meantime, upper-level energy will come over the top of the upper-level ridge, over the Pacific, producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern High Plains into the Great Basin and Northern/Central Rockies. The showers and thunderstorms will expand into the Northern/Central Plains on Friday. Elsewhere, dry thunderstorms with isolated lightning strikes will be possible over the Northern Great Basin and Northern California, where dry fuels are present, creating a risk for fire weather. Red Flag Warnings are currently in effect for portions of the Great Basin with these conditions in place. On Saturday, an upper-level ridge will move over the Northwest, this will aid in producing high temperatures over the region starting on Saturday. There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Excessive Heat Watch over the Northwest and Northern California. The high temperatures over the region on Saturday will be in the upper 90s and low-to-mid 100s Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php