Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 339 AM EDT Thu Jul 01 2021 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 01 2021 - 12Z Sat Jul 03 2021 ...Excessive heat continues across interior sections of the Northwest and Northern Rockies, extending eastward into the Northern Plains... ...Cold front to bring severe weather, heavy rain, and flooding chances to the Mid-Atlantic today... ...Flash Flooding threat found across portions of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle through Friday morning... The weather pattern to start the month of July will feature continued above average temperatures across the Northwest and Northern Plains, with below average temperatures and rain chances from the Northeast to the Southern Rockies. The extreme and historic heat found throughout the Northwest earlier this week is very slowly coming to an end. However, temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average are expected to remain over the Northern Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and Northern High Plains through Saturday. Highs into the upper-90s and low triple digits will still have the potential to break a few daily high temperature records. As an upper-level ridge migrates to south-central Canada on Friday, above average temperatures and oppressive heat will stretch into the Northern Plains. Locations between eastern Montana and Minnesota will experience a hot end of the workweek, with high into the upper-90s and some spots potentially breaking into the triple digits. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect across interior Washington and Oregon, far northern California, as well as much of Idaho and Montana. Much of this region is experiencing severe drought conditions, which could provide potential wildfires a ripe environment to grow rapidly. Thus, Red Flag Warnings have been issued throughout the Northern Great Basin and Northern Plains to highlight the concern. For the Eastern U.S., a slow-moving cold front is forecast to swing into the Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley today. As it does so, a potent upper-level low is expected to drop south from Canada and into the Lower Great Lakes, providing a sufficient environment for thunderstorms to develop over the Mid-Atlantic. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather throughout parts of the Mid-Atlantic, specifically between southern New Jersey and central Virginia, including most of the Delmarva Peninsula. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern. Meanwhile, precipitable water amounts across the Mid-Atlantic this morning are well above average, which could lead to thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with locally high amounts can be expected between the Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) has been issued for this region, as well as Flash Flood Watches that extend from New Jersey to eastern Tennessee. By Friday, the aforementioned cold front is forecast to push the heavy rain threat south and into eastern North Carolina. Numerous rounds of slow-moving thunderstorms are also possible on the western edge of the cold front across the Southern Plains this evening and into early Friday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, where 2 to 4 inches of rain are forecast. Elsewhere, continued shower and thunderstorm chances will be found across the Southern Rockies and Southeast through Saturday. Scattered showers are also expected to linger throughout the Northeast early this weekend underneath the aforementioned upper-level low and could put a damper on early Independence Day celebrations. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php