Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 346 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 04 2021 - 12Z Tue Jul 06 2021 ...Excessive heat to continue across the Northwest and Northern U.S.... ...Locally heavy rain likely along a frontal boundary draped across the Gulf Coast with monsoon moisture likely across the Southwest... ...Slight risk for severe thunderstorms for parts of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles on Sunday... ...Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to approach southern Florida on Monday... Excessive heat is expected to continue from the northwestern to the north-central U.S., with temperatures climbing once again into the 90s to low 100s on Sunday and maybe a few degrees cooler on Monday. Regardless, daytime highs remain well above normal and heat advisories and excessive heat warnings remain in effect for some locations. A couple of daily high records remain challenged once again for Sunday, mainly across parts of Minnesota. A frontal boundary settled along the Gulf Coast will keep showers and storms in the forecast from northern Florida to Texas. Moderate to locally heavy rain and localized flash flooding is possible as is the threat for severe weather, particularly for parts of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Clouds and unsettled weather will keep temperatures near or below normal across these regions. Monsoonal moisture will help to fuel diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding also a concern. Finally, a cold front dropping into the northern Plains will support shower and thunderstorm development by Monday with scattered rain also possible in the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to track near or over eastern/central Cuba on Sunday, nearing the Florida Keys by Monday. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and heavy rainfall beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula. Tropical storm watches have been hoisted for parts of the Keys and extreme southwest Florida. This risk will also spread northward into Florida and parts of the southeast by Tuesday and beyond the short range period. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php