Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 344 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Valid 00Z Mon Jul 05 2021 - 00Z Wed Jul 07 2021 ...Excessive heat to continue across the Northwest and Northern U.S.... ...Locally heavy rain likely along a frontal boundary draped across the Gulf Coast with monsoon moisture likely across the Southwest... ...Slight risk for severe thunderstorms for parts of Southern and Central High Plains through Monday morning and for the Northern High Plains Monday... ...Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to approach the Keys and South Florida by late Monday/early Tuesday morning... A ridge over most of the western U.S. will keep temperatures well above seasonal average for early July, with parts of the region experiencing excessive heat. Daily temperatures will climb into the 90s and low 100s across the Pacific Northwest and eastward to the north-central U.S; which may break or tie daily temperature records. Numerous heat advisories and excessive heat warnings remain in effect for some locations. A slow-moving front tracking across the central and north-central U.S. will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. Some of these storms may produce moderate to heavy rainfall in addition to severe weather. Across the southern states there is a slow-moving frontal boundary that will keep showers and storms in the forecast from northern Florida to Texas. Moderate to locally heavy rain and localized flash flooding is possible as is the threat for severe weather, particularly for parts of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. With scattered to widespread cloudiness over the southern tier will help maintain near normal or slightly cooler temperatures for mid-summer. Monsoonal moisture will help to fuel diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding also a concern. The National Hurricane Center has Tropical Storm Elsa forecast to reach the Florida Keys by late Monday and continuing to move north/northeast along the west side of the state Tuesday. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and heavy rainfall beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula. Tropical storm watches have been hoisted for parts of the Keys and extreme southwest Florida. This risk will also spread northward into Florida and parts of the southeast by Tuesday and beyond the short range period. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php