Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 331 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 05 2021 - 12Z Wed Jul 07 2021 ...Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to approach Florida on Monday and parts of the Southeast by Tuesday into Wednesday... ...Excessive heat to continue across the Northwest with a much cooler airmass expected after Monday for the Northern Plains... ...Locally heavy rain possible across the Gulf Coast into Texas, with monsoonal moisture affecting the Southwest... Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to begin approaching southern Florida today with tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge possible tonight and into Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall should affect northern portions of Florida and into coastal Georgia and the Carolinas Tuesday night and into Wednesday and beyond. Heavy rainfall associated with Elsa could result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding across Florida and parts of the Southeast. WPC has highlighted much of the Florida peninsula within a slight risk for excessive rainfall. For the latest information on Elsa, please refer to the National Hurricane Center. Excessive and oppressive heat across the Northwest will continue through at least the first half of the week where daytime highs will climb well into the 90s and low 100s. Monday will be slightly less hot than previous days, but daily record highs will, once again, be challenged by Tuesday and Wednesday for parts of the Great Basin and northern California. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings remain in effect for some locations. A slow-moving front tracking across the central and north-central U.S. will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. Some of these storms may produce moderate to heavy rainfall in addition to severe weather. SPC has a small slight risk for severe thunderstorms across far western South Dakota on Monday. After one more warmer than average day on Monday, this frontal boundary will usher in a much cooler airmass Tuesday into Wednesday from the northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes where daytime highs on Tuesday could be 10 to 20 degrees below normal. In the South, a dissipating frontal boundary will linger along the Gulf Coast allowing for daily rain and storms in the forecast from northern Florida to Texas. Moderate to locally heavy rain is possible. Scattered to widespread cloudiness over the southern tier will help maintain near or below normal temperatures, especially across parts of western Texas and New Mexico. In the Southwest, monsoonal moisture will fuel diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding a concern. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php