Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Valid 00Z Tue Jul 06 2021 - 00Z Thu Jul 08 2021 ...Wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall impacts are expected for portions of Florida as Elsa moves through the eastern Gulf... ...Excessive heat to continue across the Northwest with a much cooler airmass expected after Monday for the Northern Plains... ...Locally heavy rain possible across the Gulf Coast into Texas, with monsoon moisture affecting the Southwest... Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to move north of western Cuba today and track north through the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday before making landfall along the Big Bend Coast of Florida on Wednesday. On Wednesday, Elsa is expected to take a turn to the northeast, approaching coastal Georgia by late in the day. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys and along the Florida west coast tonight through Tuesday night, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Big Bend. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in flooding. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge impacts along the Georgia coast on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain above normal across much of the western U.S. through midweek. With temperatures climbing well into the 90s and low 100s in some locations, Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings are in place from far northern California and southern Oregon to southern Idaho. A slow-moving front tracking across the northern Plains and Midwest will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. Some of these storms may produce moderate to heavy rainfall in addition to severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has a small Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of the northern High Plains and the Black Hills region on Monday. After one more warmer than average day on Monday, this frontal boundary will usher in a much cooler airmass Tuesday into Wednesday from the northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes where daytime highs on Tuesday could be 10 to 20 degrees below normal. The Storm Prediction Center has also highlighted a portion of the Northeast with a Slight Risk, where severe weather is possible on Tuesday. Storms developing ahead of the front that is approaching from the west may become severe, capable of producing damaging winds. In the South, a dissipating frontal boundary will remain, supporting rain and storms from the southern Plains to the Southeast. Moderate to locally heavy rain is possible. In the Southwest, the monsoon pattern will persist for another day, fueling additional rounds of thunderstorms across portions of eastern Arizona and New Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. Ample moisture spreading north will extend the threat for daily showers and thunderstorm into the central Rockies and High Plains. Storms across these regions may be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall amounts, raising flash flooding concerns. Pereira Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php