Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 334 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 06 2021 - 12Z Thu Jul 08 2021 ...Tropical Storm force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall likely across Florida as Elsa moves through the region on Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions extending into the Southeast on Wednesday... ...Excessive heat to continue across the Northwest with a much cooler airmass expected for the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes... ...Severe weather and locally heavy to excessive rain possible for parts of the Upper Midwest and into the Northeast... ...Heavy rainfall also possible across parts of South Texas Tuesday and Wednesday... Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to track through the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday before making landfall along the Big Bend Coast of Florida on Wednesday. Tropical storm force wind, heavy rainfall, and life-threatening storm surge is possible along the west coast of Florida into Wednesday where both Tropical Storm Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect. On Wednesday, Elsa is expected to move through coastal Georgia and the Carolinas where again tropical storm conditions are possible into Thursday. Heavy rainfall associated with Elsa may result in flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SPC also highlights much of the Florida Peninsula in a slight risk for a risk of tornadoes. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Elsa. Temperatures across the Northwest again are expected to be well above normal on Tuesday, with daytime temps climbing well into the 90s and low 100s in some locations and record highs possible. Temperatures should moderate somewhat Wednesday into Thursday, though still remaining above normal. Parts of the Pacific Northwest may actually trend near or below normal as a cold front begins moving through the region. A slow moving front moving through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and eventually the Northeast will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days, with some of these storms having the potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather. This cold front will usher in a much cooler airmass for Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures across the Northenrn Plains and Upper Great Lakes 10 to 20+ degrees below normal. Elsewhere, a dissipating frontal boundary draped through the Southeast will continue to support rain and storms from the southern Plains to the Southeast with moderate to locally heavy rainfall possible. The best chance for heavy rainfall is across parts of South Texas underneath of a lingering upper level disturbance. WPC shows a slight risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding for this area both Tuesday and Wednesday. In the Southwest, the monsoonal pattern will persist for another day, fueling additional rounds of mainly diurnally driven thunderstorms across parts of eastern Arizona and New Mexico on Tuesday with ample moisture also spreading north into the central Rockies and High Plains. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php