Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 341 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 Valid 00Z Wed Jul 07 2021 - 00Z Fri Jul 09 2021 ...Damaging winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall likely across the west coast of Florida as Elsa moves through the region this evening, with tropical storm conditions extending into the Southeast on Wednesday and coastal Mid-Atlantic by Thursday... ...Heavy rainfall and flash flooding likely across South Texas over the next few days... ...Excessive heat continues throughout parts of the Northwest and Great Basin, as well as the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... ...Severe weather and locally heavy rain possible for parts of the Upper Midwest this evening and over the Northeast through Thursday... As of this afternoon, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located off the coast of southwest Florida and was producing locally heavy rain across south-central Florida and along Florida's Gulf Coast regions. Elsa is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight and make landfall on Wednesday morning near the Big Bend of Florida. Potentially life-threatening storm surge is possible along the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, with hurricane conditions possible as well. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher totals up to 6 inches, could produce instances of flash flooding throughout the western half of the Florida Peninsula before gradually clearing by Wednesday night. A few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out as well. Elsa is then forecast to slowly weaken over the Southeast on Wednesday and early Thursday, before restrengthening as it nears southeast Virginia on Thursday night. Heavy rain is expected to be the main hazard for these areas, as upwards of 8 inches of rain could fall between southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rain is also a concern for much of South Texas due to multiple rounds of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms expected to impact the region over the next few days. The combination of extremely high atmospheric moisture content and a very stagnant airmass will lead to thunderstorms producing several inches of rain in a short period of time. Rainfall totals between tonight and Friday morning could approach 5 to 10 inches. This will likely lead to numerous flash flood events, with significant flooding possible. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall and Flash Flood Watches have been issued for South Texas, specifically near the middle and lower Texas Coast. Isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain is also forecast to impact parts of the Upper Midwest today and much of the Northeast through the end of this week. An area of low pressure and associated cold front is forecast to slowly push through the Midwest and eventually stall over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast on Thursday. This will help spark thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather over the Northeast and throughout southern Minnesota/central Wisconsin for tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern for both regions, with a few isolated tornadoes possible over the Upper Midwest. The threat of a few severe thunderstorms also exists this evening over the Northern High Plains as well. By Wednesday and Thursday, the majority of the thunderstorm activity is expected to shift into the Great Lakes and Northeast, where isolated severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will remain possible. Midsummer heat continues for parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Starting with the western U.S., high temperatures into the upper-90s and low-100s are forecast throughout interior Washington and Oregon, extending across much of the Great Basin. A few daily high temperature records could break, centered around Idaho and Nevada on Wednesday. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories have been issued for parts of Utah, Nevada, Idaho, and Oregon. The hot and dry conditions may also lead to an elevated fire weather risk this week; therefore, Red Flag Warnings scatter the region as well. For the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, oppressive heat is expected to continue into Wednesday. This section of the country is forecast to be sandwiched between an approaching cold front from the west-northwest and Tropical Storm Elsa to the south. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low-to-mid 90s, but heat indices into the low triple digits will make it feel even hotter. Heat Advisories are in effect. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php