Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 348 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 07 2021 - 12Z Fri Jul 09 2021 ...Tropical Storm conditions will continue across parts of Florida on Wednesday, and into eastern Georgia and the Carolinas by Thursday... ...High risk for excessive rainfall and significant flash flooding across portions of the middle and lower Texas Coast... ...Excessive heat continues throughout much of the West, as well as for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday... ...Heavy rain possible for parts of the Northeast on Thursday... Tropical Storm Elsa, currently located just west of Tampa Bay, FL, is forecast to continue moving towards the north-northeast with a landfall near the Big Bend of Florida early Wednesday. Elsa will make her way across eastern portions of Georgia and the Carolinas late Wednesday and Thursday before racing northeastward along the East Coast into Friday. Damaging winds, heavy rainfall, dangerous storm surge, and a few tornadoes are expected along the path of Elsa. As much as 6 inches of rain, and locally higher amounts, are possible associated with Elsa which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding across parts of Florida and into the Southeast. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Tropical Storm Elsa. An upper level disturbance combined with a lingering surface boundary will bring heavy to significant rainfall to parts of south Texas and the Texas Gulf Coast Wednesday and Thursday. As much as 5 to 10 inches of rain is possible across this region with a moderate to high risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding along the middle and lower Texas coast. Farther north, a frontal boundary sliding eastward across the Midwest and into the Northeast will support showers and thunderstorms, capable of producing heavy rainfall and/or severe weather, especially as the front moves across the Northeast on Thursday and begins to interact with moisture from Elsa. The western portion of this boundary could also bring the threat for severe thunderstorms to parts of central Montana on Wednesday. Excessive heat continues across much of the Western U.S. with daytime highs well into the 90s and lower 100s into the end of the week and more records possible. Excessive heat warnings, watches, and heat advisories remain in effect across central California, the Southwest, and parts of the central/northern Great Basin. Across parts of the Northwest, the heat and dry conditions combined may lead to an elevated to critical risk for fire weather Wednesday and Thursday with Red Flag Warnings in effect for eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and northeast Oregon. The mid-Atlantic into southern New England will deal with another day of above normal temperatures on Wednesday before values moderate back towards normal or even slightly below normal as a cold front traverses the region and Elsa lifts northward. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php