Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 08 2021 - 12Z Sat Jul 10 2021 ...Tropical Storm Elsa to produce gusty winds and heavy rain from parts of the Southeast to New England through Friday... ...Significant rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will continue through Thursday for portions of the middle and lower Texas Coast... ...Dangerous heat continues throughout much of the West, expanding into the Central Plains on Friday... Tropical Storm Elsa, currently moving through the Southeast this morning, will continue to bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of southeastern Georgia and the lowcountry of South Carolina today with rainfall totals of 3-5 inches, and locally higher, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Through Friday, Elsa is expected to track along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast bringing tropical storm conditions as far north as southern New England. From eastern North Carolina northward into the Northeast, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, are possible leading to a threat for flash and urban flooding. A couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out either, especially for parts of the coastal Carolinas. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest information regarding Tropical Storm Elsa. Meanwhile, an abundance of tropical moisture and very little upper-level steering flow has produced an environment ripe for significant rainfall throughout parts of South Texas which will continue through Thursday. As much as 5 inches, isolated higher, of additional rainfall is possible across this region, with a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall continuing along the middle and lower Texas Coast. Some areas have already received 8+ inches of rain over the last few days, which has severely compromised soils and low-lying areas prone to flooding. Widespread flash flooding is likely, with life-threatening situations possible. Rain chances are expected to continue through at least Friday as well. Farther north, a frontal boundary sliding eastward through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast will support showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. The threat for excessive rainfall is forecast to increase across the Northeast on Thursday as the approaching frontal boundary begins to interact with moisture associated with Elsa. The western portion of this boundary could also bring the threat for severe thunderstorms to parts of the Northern Plains on Thursday, shifting into the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley by Friday. Heavy to excessive rainfall is also possible on Friday across parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley. Excessive heat will continue across much of the Western U.S. as daytime highs soar well into the 90s and lower 100s through the end of this week, with more daily records possible. Widespread Excessive Heat Warnings, and some heat advisories, remain in effect across interior California, the Southwest, and parts of the central Great Basin. Much above normal temperatures will also shift into the Rockies and Central Plains by Friday with some record high values possible. For parts of the Northwest and Great Basin, the combined hot and dry conditions may lead to an elevated to critical risk for fire weather Thursday and Friday where Red Flag Warnings remain in effect. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php