Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 328 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Valid 00Z Fri Jul 09 2021 - 00Z Sun Jul 11 2021 ...Tropical Storm Elsa to produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes from parts of the Mid-Atlantic to New England through Friday... ...Significant rainfall and flash flooding continues for portions of the middle and lower Texas Coast... ...Dangerous heat found throughout much of the West, worsening by the weekend... ...Severe weather and heavy rain to spread from the Northern Plains this evening into the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley by Friday and Saturday... Tropical Storm Elsa, currently moving through eastern North Carolina this afternoon, will continue to bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the Mid-Atlantic tonight and parts of the Northeast into Friday. From eastern North Carolina northward into New England, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts, are possible and could lead to numerous instances of flash and urban flooding. A couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out as well, especially for regions along the coastal Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Elsa is expected to race northeastward and into the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest information regarding Tropical Storm Elsa. Meanwhile, an abundance of tropical moisture and very little upper-level steering flow has once again produced an environment ripe for significant rainfall this evening throughout parts of the western Gulf Coast, which will continue through at least Friday. As much as 5 to 7 inches of additional rainfall is possible across this region, with a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall continuing along the middle and lower Texas Coast through Friday. Some areas have already received 8+ inches of rain over the last few days, which has severely compromised soils and low-lying areas prone to flooding. Widespread flash flooding is likely, with significant flooding also possible. Rain chances are expected slowly dwindle by Saturday. Farther north, a frontal boundary is expected to situate between the Ohio Valley and Central Plains through the beginning of the weekend. This boundary, combined with an impulse of upper-level energy swinging into the Northern Plains tonight, is forecast to spark numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the Northern Plains this evening before shifting southeastward and into the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday and Saturday. For tonight, the greatest chances for severe weather are expected to be found across northeast Montana and the western Dakotas. By Friday, the severe thunderstorm threat shifts into the Central Plains and Midwest, with isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail most likely to impact areas between Des Moines, Iowa and Saint Louis, Missouri. Flash flooding is also a possible hazard that may impact the aforementioned regions, due to the possibility of multiple rounds of thunderstorms traversing over the same location. Excessive heat will continue across much of the Western U.S. as daytime highs soar well into the upper 90s and triple digits through the end of this week, with heat worsening across the Southwest by this weekend. Widespread Excessive Heat Warnings, and some heat advisories, remain in effect across much of California (minus coastal regions), the Southwest, and parts of the central Great Basin. Dozens of daily high temperature records could fall over the next few days, with Las Vegas, Nevada forecast to come within one degree of their all-time high temperature on Saturday. Even though this section of the country is used to extreme heat, temperatures of this magnitude can be potentially deadly if proper precautions are not taken. Residents are urged to stay hydrated and avoid strenuous outdoor activities if possible. Much above normal temperatures will also shift into the Rockies and Central Plains on Friday, with some record high values possible. For parts of the Great Basin and Northern/Central Rockies, the combined hot and dry conditions may lead to a critical risk for fire weather through the end of the week, particularly where Red Flag Warnings remain in effect between northern California and Wyoming. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php