Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 305 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 9 2021 - 12Z Sun Jul 11 2021 ...Tropical Storm Elsa to produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding for the Northeast states... ...Flooding and strong storms possible for the Texas Gulf Coast and portions of the Midwest... ...Dangerous heat for much of the West and peaking this the weekend... Tropical Storm Elsa continues to make steady progress northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic coast and will accelerate in forward progress as it crosses coastal portions of New England on Friday. This will bring a swath of heavy from New Jersey to eastern Maine through Friday evening before exiting over southeastern Canada, with the potential for 2-4 inch rainfall totals with locally higher amounts possible. Gusty winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with any convection that develops in association with Elsa, especially east of the storm track. Some coastal flooding at times of high tide can also be expected. The National Hurricane Center has the latest information regarding Tropical Storm Elsa. Heavy rainfall will also be making weather headlines across the Midwest and portions of the Texas Gulf Coast. A slow moving frontal boundary is expected to exist between the Ohio Valley and Central Plains through at least Saturday night along with an upper level disturbance approaching from the Northern Plains. This will aid in the development of multiple mesoscale convective systems that could repeatedly affect the same general areas, particularly from Iowa to Indiana where several inches of rainfall will be possible along with numerous strong to severe storms. Farther south across southeast Texas, more tropical downpours are expected during the day on Friday with moisture laden onshore flow in association with a weak mid-level disturbance. Severe flooding has already been an issue here, and the additional slow moving showers/storms will only aggravate the potential for more flooding on Friday. The good news is that there should be an abatement in the coverage of rainfall and intensity by Friday night and beyond for the Texas Gulf Coast. In the temperature department, excessive heat will continue across much of the Western U.S. as daytime highs soar well above normal with highs well into the 90s for much of the Great Basin and widespread 100+ degree readings for valley locations, with the heat worsening across the Southwest by this weekend. Numerous daily high temperature records could be in jeopardy of being broken, particularly for California and Nevada. Highs could approach 115-120 degrees for the lower elevations of Arizona and eastern California this weekend! Much above normal temperatures will also be present across the Rockies and Central Plains on Friday, with some daily record high readings possible. For parts of the Great Basin and Northern/Central Rockies, the combined hot and dry conditions may lead to a critical risk for fire weather through the end of the week, particularly where Red Flag Warnings remain in effect between northern California and Wyoming. Hamrick Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php