Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 339 PM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 Valid 00Z Sat Jul 10 2021 - 00Z Mon Jul 12 2021 ...Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa to exit the Northeast this evening, with heavy rain and flash flooding remaining a concern along coastal Maine... ...Flooding and severe storms possible for the Texas Gulf Coast tonight and portions of the Midwest through Sunday... ...Record-breaking heat found throughout much of the West and Southwest to intensify this weekend... As of this afternoon, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa was located near Cape Cod, Massachusetts while racing toward the northeast and the Canadian Maritimes. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher totals, are expected along coastal Maine through late this evening. Considerable flash flooding will remain a concern for this region. Conditions will drastically improve over the Northeast by Saturday morning, with only a few isolated showers and thunderstorms possible throughout southern New England. Heavy rainfall will also be making weather headlines across the Midwest and portions of the Texas Gulf Coast. A slow-moving frontal boundary is expected to exist between the Ohio Valley and Central Plains through this weekend, along with an anomalously strong upper-level disturbance approaching from the Northern Plains. This will aid in the development of multiple mesoscale convective systems that could repeatedly affect the same general areas, particularly from Iowa to Indiana where several inches of rainfall will be possible along with numerous strong to severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather across southern Iowa, northeast Missouri, and west-central Illinois valid through Saturday morning. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible. Flash Flood Watches and a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall are also in effect throughout a similar region. The heavy rain and severe storm threat is forecast to shift slightly south and east by Sunday, as the system remains relatively stationary. Potent storms and the potential for flash flooding are likely to be found between the Ohio Valley and Deep South. Meanwhile, more tropical downpours are expected this evening across southeast Texas as moisture laden onshore flow in association with a weak mid-level disturbance lingers over the region. Severe flooding has already been an issue here, and the additional slow-moving showers/storms will only aggravate the potential for more flooding. The good news is that there should be an abatement in the coverage of rainfall and intensity by Saturday morning and beyond for the Texas Gulf Coast. In the temperature department, excessive heat will continue across much of the Western U.S. as daytime highs soar well above average with highs well into the 90s for much of the Great Basin and widespread 100+ degree readings for valley locations, with the heat worsening across the Southwest by this weekend. Numerous daily high temperature records could be in jeopardy of being broken, particularly for California. Highs could approach 115-120 degrees for the lower elevations of Arizona and eastern California this weekend. A few notable temperature records at risk of falling include Las Vegas, Nevada, where Saturday's high temperature is forecast to come within one degree of the all-time high temperature record (117F) set in 2015. Death Valley, California may reach 130 degrees for only the 5th time on record, and the all-time high temperature record (117F) for the state of Utah could be reached on Saturday as well. Widespread Excessive Heat Warning have been issued. For parts of the Great Basin and Northern/Central Rockies, the combined hot and dry conditions may lead to a critical risk of fire weather through the weekend, particularly where Red Flag Warnings remain in effect between Washington and Wyoming. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php