Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 347 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 19 2021 - 12Z Wed Jul 21 2021 ...Heavy rain and scattered flash flooding possible between the Southeast and Southern Plains today, with the Southwest Monsoon remaining active as well... ...Excessive heat continues across the Northern Plains... ...Elevated to critical fire weather found throughout the northern High Plains, northern Great Basin, as well as northern California... A slow moving cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains is expected spark additional thunderstorms throughout much of the south-central and southeastern United States today. The main hazards associated with these storms are expected to be from frequent lightning and flash flooding. Isolated rainfall totals greater than 2 inches will be possible with any thunderstorms that remain stationary for an extended period of time and could lead to flooding across low-lying areas. This frontal boundary and related rainfall chances are forecast to linger over the region through midweek, while slowly inching southward across Texas. Farther north, thunderstorms forming ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon and evening may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail from central North Dakota to northern Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Southwest Monsoon should remain quite active for the foreseeable future and bring much needed rainfall to this section of the country. However, the potential for flash flooding will also continue for isolated locations throughout the Southwest and central Great Basin, especially over burn scars. One final day of potentially record-breaking heat is in store for the northern High Plains today before temperatures drop slightly by Tuesday. Highs are forecast soar above the century mark and close to 110 degrees throughout eastern Montana, with upper-90s found across the rest of the Northern Plains. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect for Montana. Cloud cover and a weak cold front in the vicinity should drop temperature on Tuesday, but highs will remain above average and into the upper-90s over much of the Northern Plains. Along with the above average temperatures, the combination of extreme drought, gusty winds, and dry lightning could make conditions ripe throughout the West for new wildfires to form and spread uncontrollably. Areas of greatest concern today are expected to be found between the northern High Plains and California, where dry lightning is most likely over California and the Northern Great Basin. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches stretch from central California to northwest South Dakota. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php