Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Valid 00Z Thu Jul 22 2021 - 00Z Sat Jul 24 2021 ...Flood threat increasing across the Southwest as Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms intensify... ...Midsummer heat continues across the Northern and Central Plains and spreads into the Midwest... ...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns remain throughout the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin... The Summer Monsoon is expected to persist throughout the Southwest and central Great Basin for the foreseeable future. Daily showers and thunderstorms are forecast, with the threat for heavy rain and flash flooding increasing as an upper level disturbance moves over the region and helps to enhance the Monsoon. Slight Risks (level 2/4) for Excessive Rainfall are in effect for portions of southwestern Colorado, western New Mexico, and Arizona through the forecast period. Instances of heavy rain are forecast to increase in intensity, with rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches possible each day, and become much more widespread across the area. The flash flooding risk will be of particular concern for more urban areas and across burn scars. Hot weather is forecast to continue across the Northern and Central Plains over the next few days as an upper-level ridge remains anchored over the Central Rockies. High temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s are forecast for Thursday across eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through Thursday evening for eastern Montana. On Friday, the heat will expand to the east over the Upper Midwest with high temperatures increasing into the upper 90s from the eastern Dakotas east across Minnesota and into far western Wisconsin. Slightly to the west, extreme drought, gusty winds, and the continuing threat of dry lighting could create elevated to critical fire weather. These conditions stretch from the northern Sierra Nevada and Great Basin to the Northern Rockies, where Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings have been issued. Temperatures look to remain seasonably comfortable across the West in general, from the Northwest south through the Great Basin and California. However, the lack of precipitation is the concern for continued drought and fire weather conditions overall. Elsewhere, a cold front will continue to push east off the Eastern Seaboard this evening, helping to clear the smoke that has lingered over the region. High temperatures Thursday and Friday should be seasonably mild, with 70s for New England and 80s for the Mid-Atlantic. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected for Texas and the Southeast as a frontal boundary lingers over the region. Thunderstorms are also expected to increase across the Northern and Central Plains and the Midwest Thursday into Friday as moisture increases from the south and a cold front begins to move into the region from the west. Putnam/Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php