Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 347 AM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 23 2021 - 12Z Sun Jul 25 2021 ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest through Saturday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest through Saturday morning... ...There is an Elevated Risk of conditions capable of producing wildfires over parts of the Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies and parts of the Great Basin through Saturday morning... Monsoonal moisture and upper-level energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms, and some will produce heavy rain over the Southwest and the Central/Southern Rockies through Sunday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers through Saturday morning. The excessive rainfall threat will decrease slightly from Saturday into Sunday as the showers and thunderstorms continue with the monsoonal moisture. A front extending from the Northern High Plains southwestward to the Great Basin will move slowly to the Great Lakes to the Northern Plains by Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary over parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday. The showers and thunderstorms will move into the Great Lakes on Saturday, moving into parts of the Northeast on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and minimal risk of tornadoes. The severe thunderstorm risk moves into the Great Lakes on Saturday into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop from parts of the Northeast to the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Additionally, a weak front over the Southeast will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms over the Southeast and the Central Gulf Coast Through Sunday. Meanwhile, there is an Elevated Risk for conditions capable of producing wildfires over parts of the Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies and parts of the Great Basin through Saturday morning. Gusty wind and dry fuels will aid in producing conditions favorable for the spread of wildfires. Therefore, Red Flag Warnings have been issued for the areas. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php