Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Valid 12Z Tue Aug 03 2021 - 12Z Thu Aug 05 2021 ...Monsoonal showers expected to bring heavy rains and localized flash flooding across central to southern Rockies through tonight before gradually diminishing... ..Heavy rains and flooding possible along the central Gulf coast northeastward across the coastal Southeast and into eastern Carolinas... ...Below average temperatures from the central Plains to the East Coast while heat returns across the interior West Coast and into the northern Plains... A mid to upper level ridge building from the Southwest into the Pacific Northwest will continue to spread drier conditions across the interior sections of the West Coast while shifting the most active monsoonal showers further eastward into the central and southern Rockies. Heavy downpours associated with some of the thunderstorms could lead to localized flash flooding today. This is especially so in area of recent burn scars and in regions of steep terrain. By Wednesday, these showers and storms are expected to become less active. By Thursday morning, the high pressure ridge is forecast to bring enough stability into the region to further suppress the monsoonal rainfall. Meanwhile, the drying trend brought by the building ridge will lead to the return of above average temperatures across the Desert Southwest and up to the interior Pacific Northwest. Some of the heat will also spread into the northern Plains where high temperatures are forecast to reach into the 90s for the next couple of days. A frontal boundary is expected to remain nearly stationary over the next few days stretching along the Gulf Coast and along the Southeast U.S. coast. This front will be the focus for a multi day heavy rain event as several rounds of potentially heavy rains move along the front where low pressure waves are forecast to form. Much of the region in the vicinity of this front has seen above average rain totals over the past few weeks. This, along with the potential for additional heavy rains will pose an increasing threat of flooding and flash flooding from the central Gulf Coast to the coastal sections of the Southeast into the eastern Carolinas. In addition to the heavy rains in the vicinity of the above mentioned stationary front, temperatures are expected to remain much below average over the next few days with high temperatures 10-15 degrees colder than average from North Florida into the Southeast and Carolinas. A few record low maximum temperatures are possible across portions of the Southeast over the next 2 days where highs are forecast to remain in the 70s. Below normal temperatures will also stretch across the central U.S. into the central/southern Rockies. Kong/Oravec Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php