Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 327 PM EDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Valid 00Z Sun Aug 08 2021 - 00Z Tue Aug 10 2021 ...Heavy rain and severe storms possible from the Central Plains to the Midwest through Sunday... ...Hot in the Great Plains, with poor air quality due to wildfire smoke found throughout parts of the High Plains, Rockies, and Intermountain West... An upper level disturbance and frontal boundary will be the focus for potentially severe thunderstorms this evening across the Central Plains and Midwest. Storms from the TX/OK Panhandles to the Upper Mississippi Valley could produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. The greatest threat of isolated tornadoes is forecast across parts of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin. In addition to the severe threat, flash flooding is also a concern this afternoon across the Upper Midwest. By Sunday, as a wave of low pressure inches east across the Midwest, the next round of potentially severe storms is expected to set up between southern Wisconsin and eastern Kansas. Portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley may also contend with areas of flash flooding on Sunday as well. In total, as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible by the end of the weekend for portions of the Midwest. Three other areas expected to receive notable rainfall through Monday are located throughout the Northwest, Southwest, and Mid-Atlantic. Starting with the latter, a weakening frontal boundary with a wave of low pressure tracking northeast along it will induce heavy showers and thunderstorms from the southeastern Virginia to the New Jersey coast this evening. Some instances of flash flooding are possible before the system exits the region early on Sunday. In the Northwest, a potent Pacific cold front is responsible for wet and cooler conditions across the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains by the beginning of the week. Isolated severe thunderstorms and up to an inch of rain is forecast over northwest and north-central Montana by the end of Sunday. Elsewhere, monsoonal moisture may result in scattered thunderstorms over the next couple of days across southern Arizona. Temperature-wise, above normal temperatures are expected from much of the central U.S. to the Lower Great Lakes. Parts of the central and southern High Plains could eclipse the century mark, while hotter and more humid conditions return to the Northeast by Monday. Last but certainly not least, thick wildfire smoke continues to cause poor air quality levels in parts of the Intermountain West, Rockies, and High Plains. Elevated fire weather conditions have been issued for the northern High Plains of Montana this evening and the central Great Basin on Sunday. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php