Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Valid 12Z Fri Aug 20 2021 - 12Z Sun Aug 22 2021 ...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain possible from the Northern/Central Plains toward portions of the Upper Midwest today as a potent cold front swings through... ...A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Saturday morning... ...Tropical Storm Henri is forecast to take a turn toward southern New England today with potential impacts starting as early as Saturday night... A rather strong upper-level low traversing the Northern Rockies this morning is forecast to eject into the Northern Plains today, while a broader upper-level trough becomes negatively tilted. These features will help produce an active day of weather across the north-central United States. At the surface, a potent cold front and rapidly strengthening low pressure system are expected to spark numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Northern/Central Plains by this afternoon before reaching parts of the Upper Midwest and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley by evening. A few storms could turn severe and lead to damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather from northeast Kansas to northern Minnesota. Flash flooding will also be a concern throughout central and eastern North Dakota, as well as northwest Minnesota, where several inches of rain could fall. Otherwise, much of this part of the country is currently experiencing severe drought and will welcome any beneficial rainfall. Heavy rain will also be a concern throughout sections of the Mid-Atlantic today as a tropical airmass and stationary boundary linger over the region. An abundance of atmospheric moisture content will allow for thunderstorms to produce intense downpours from southern Maryland and Delaware to eastern North Carolina. Many of these locations have already experienced an active week, partly thanks to the remnants of Fred producing widespread showers and thunderstorms a few days ago, which has left soil and terrain even more susceptible to flash flooding. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall, as well as Flash Flood Watches are in effect to highlight the potential hazard. Meanwhile, all eyes are expected to turn toward the Northeast and New England by the end of the weekend as Tropical Storm Henri threatens the region with potential storm surge, wind, and rain impacts. Henri is currently located well off the Southeast coastline and is forecast to make a turn toward the north today, while potentially strengthening into a hurricane by Saturday morning. Dangerous rip currents and rough surf can be expected along the East Coast this weekend regardless of the eventual track of Henri. Tropical storm force winds may reach coastal regions of the Northeast and southern New England by Saturday night, with the center of Henri nearing southern New England by Sunday morning. Be sure to check the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast and potential impacts associated with Henri. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php