Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 335 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Valid 12Z Sun Aug 22 2021 - 12Z Tue Aug 24 2021 ...Hurricane Henri to make landfall over Southern New England this afternoon and produce damaging winds, heavy rain, and dangerous storm surge across the region... ...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the Central and Northern Great Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley today... ...Oppressive heat found across the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southern Plains... The center of Hurricane Henri is currently located southeast of Long Island and moving north toward Southern New England. This track will likely lead to Henri making landfall sometime this afternoon as either a tropical storm or category 1 hurricane between western Long Island and Rhode Island. Heavy rain is already occurring away from the center of the storm across New Jersey, which has led to numerous flash flood warnings overnight. Conditions are likely to drastically deteriorate throughout Southern New England this morning as Henri approaches. Dangerous storm surge is expected from Long Island to southeastern Massachusetts, where Storm Surge Warnings are in effect, and damaging winds are likely to topple numerous trees and powers lines. Gusty winds are expected to extend farther inland across Massachusetts by tonight as Henri weakens and continues to push northward. Meanwhile, heavy rain and flash flooding will also remain a major concern as upwards of 10 inches of rain could fall from New Jersey to New England. WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall across this region. Henri's forward speed is forecast to slow down after landfall and linger over parts of New England on Monday before exiting eastern Maine as a post-tropical cyclone by Tuesday. Therefore, impacts associated with heavy rain may last through Monday. Throughout the central U.S., a potent upper-level low is forecast to enter the Northern Plains today and spark scattered thunderstorms over the Northern and Central Plains. A few storms may turn severe and produced damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather between far southern North Dakota and far northern Kansas, extending into western Iowa as well. Scattered thunderstorms may also impact the Southeast through this evening. However, the main hazard with these storms will be associated with heavy rain. A tropical airmass and surface trough could produce thunderstorms capable of intense rainfall rates and isolated instances of flash flooding, particularly over eastern South Carolina. Temperatures across the central and eastern United States are forecast to gradually turn hotter through midweek as an upper-level ridge builds over the southern tier. Oppressive heat will already be found across the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southern Plains today, as heat and humidity push heat indices up to around 110F. Heat Advisories have been issued for eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Snell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php