Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Thu Sep 02 2021

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 03 2021 - 00Z Sun Sep 05 2021

...Cooler and drier weather to support ongoing cleanup efforts in the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic the next couple days...

...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms to drench parts of the Nation's
Heartland, severe weather and flash flooding is possible in the Central
Plains...

...Spotty showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast and in the
southern High Plains; poor air quality due to ongoing bouts of wildfire
smoke to continue; hot and steamy in the South Central U.S...

In wake of the devastating severe weather and historic flooding in parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast left behind by Ida, these regions can
expect seasonally cooler temperatures and dry conditions heading into
Labor Day weekend as a dome of high pressure builds in. This is welcomed
news for ongoing cleanup efforts while no rainfall should help areas of
ongoing river and stream flooding to subside sooner rather than later.

The regions forecast to receive the most active weather to close out the
work-week and kickoff Labor Day Weekend are the central High Plains and
Midwest. A pair of upper level disturbances inducing waves of low pressure
are set to initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms. There are Slight
Risks for Excessive Rainfall and severe weather in parts of Nebraska,
Kansas, and western Missouri this afternoon and into the overnight hours.
In addition, heavy downpours in West Texas and southeast New Mexico are
anticipated as lingering moisture from former Tropical Cyclone Nora
supports an environment that could lead to areas of flash flooding. Flash
Flood Watches are in effect through this evening. By Friday, a slowly
moving cold front will generate another round of thunderstorms over the
Central Plains that could become severe and/or produce excessive rainfall
rates. A second wave of low pressure in eastern Wyoming approaching the
Black Hills of South Dakota on Friday will spark additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Marginal Risks for flash flooding and severe
weather are in place for these areas on Friday. Saturday features yet
another day of stormy weather from the Southwest to the mid-Mississippi
Valley with thunderstorms potentially becoming severe and/or leading to
localized areas of flash flooding due to a front taking its time tracking
through the nation's mid-section.

Elsewhere, a frontal boundary is expected to stall near the central Gulf
Coast and across northern Florida on Friday and stick around into
Saturday. Look for this front to trigger spotty showers and thunderstorms
that may produce heavy downpours within the strongest cells. The West
Coast figures to remain mostly dry while Air Quality Alerts persist across
parts of the Pacific Northwest and California and parts of Wyoming and
Montana due to wildfire smoke. There are also Heat Advisories out for
parts of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley where heat
indices range between 105-110 degrees this afternoon. Expect daytime highs
to soar into the mid-upper 90s both Friday and Saturday in these regions.
The Midwest and northern High Plains will join the Northeast in
experiencing a rather cool start to September. The West Coast begins a
gradual warming trend today in the Pacific Northwest which culminates in a
rather hot second half of the holiday weekend throughout the western third
of the country.

Mullinax