Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Fri Sep 03 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 04 2021 - 00Z Mon Sep 06 2021

...Labor Day Weekend to feature stormy weather across the nation's
mid-section but mostly tranquil conditions for much of the West and East
Coasts...

...Seasonally cooler temperatures to stick around in the Central Plains,
Ohio Valley, and Northeast; hottest conditions in the South-Central U.S.,
growing increasingly hot throughout the West...

...Occasional showers and storms in parts of the Southeast, Southwest, and
Great Lakes; wildfires and plumes of smoke continue to affect air quality
levels in the West...

Labor Day Weekend can be best summarized as Mother Nature not having the
weekend off in parts of the Heartland, but taking a weekend getaway trip
to the East or West Coasts where drier conditions are expected. The
primary weather maker is a wave of low pressure and its associated cold
front tracking through the central Plains and into the mid-Mississippi
Valley on Saturday. The cold front will act as a trigger to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and into Saturday. Some of
these storms will contain heavy downpours and may even lead to areas of
flash flooding. As a result, Slight Risks for Excessive Rainfall have been
posted for southern Kansas and central Missouri today, followed up with
another Slight Risk areas from northern Oklahoma on east to the
Mississippi-Ohio River confluence. The front marches east on Sunday
ushering its swath of scattered showers and storms into the Ohio Valley,
Great Lakes, and both the northern and central Appalachians. Expect
hit-or-miss showers and storms to flare up Sunday afternoon in the
southern High Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Temperature-wise, the hottest and most summer-like temperature regimes
will be found in the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Daytime
highs both Saturday and Sunday should reach the mid-upper 90s with heat
indices as high as 110 degrees. The aforementioned cold front should bring
some cooler conditions to Oklahoma and northern Arkansas by Sunday, but
south Texas and the rest of the Deep South look to remain sultry. Out
west, temperatures return to above normal levels up and down the West
Coast on Saturday and only get hotter as Labor Weekend progresses. The
Great Valley of California may see highs reach the century mark in spots
by Sunday. The coolest weather is set to be on the north-side of the cold
front in the Central Plains where high temps will struggle to get out of
the 70s (roughly 10-15 degrees below normal). The Northeast looks to
remain on the seasonally cool side each day this weekend, but rising dew
points will make a slightly more humid day on Sunday. Summer-like
temperatures are anticipated in the Southeast with the whole region
(excluding Florida) having a good chance to be mostly dry heading into
Labor Day.

Elsewhere, a quasi-stationary front will make its elf at home near the
northern Gulf Coast and over central Florida. This means daily rounds of
pop-up showers and storms each afternoon, some of which could contains
heavy downpours in these areas. Farther west, unsettled weather is also on
tap for parts of the Southwest where atmospheric moisture content remains
elevated. There is even a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall in parts of
southeast New Mexico this evening. Look for scattered showers and storms
to be a common occurrence in southern New Mexico and into the Texas
Panhandle this weekend. Lastly, Air Quality Alerts remain in effect across
parts of the Pacific Northwest and California due to ongoing bouts with
smoke from ongoing wildfires.

Mullinax