Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021

Valid 12Z Fri Sep 10 2021 - 12Z Sun Sep 12 2021

...Mid-September heat wave in the Nation's Heartland lasting into the
upcoming weekend...

...Red Flag Warnings and Elevated Fire Weather Conditions in parts of the
Northwest and eastern Wyoming; wildfire smoke to become widespread
throughout the Plains...

...Showers and storms in Florida today, followed by the central Plains and
Great Lakes Saturday; keeping a watchful eye on tropical activity in the
western Gulf of Mexico this weekend...

A generally tranquil weather pattern is in store across the majority of
the Lower 48 to close out the work-week and kickoff the upcoming weekend.
This is due to a pair of strengthening upper level ridges of high
pressure: one over the Southeast and one in the Southwest. There are still
a handful of hazards of note in the short term across the country,
however. The first is stifling heat from the Rockies to the Plains. High
temps today look to soar into the triple digits for parts of the central
and northern High Plains. High temperature anomalies are forecast to range
between 15-25F above normal with quite a few locations potentially tying
or breaking daily record highs. Plus, much of the western third of the
country will start today on a mild note with many daily record warm
minimum temps possible. On Saturday, the core of the hottest temperatures
versus normal shift a little farther east into the central Plains and
Midwest where more daily record warm highs and lows are possible. The
coolest regions through Saturday night are forecast to take shape along
the East Coast and in the Pacific Northwest. However, after a seasonally
cool and comfortable Friday, temperatures will warm-up throughout the
weekend along the East Coast, culminating in the return of typical
summer-time warmth in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Sunday.

The second hazard involves favorable fire weather conditions for parts of
the West. Wildfires continue to rage, producing large plumes of smoke
overspreading the West and the Nation's Heartland. Some locations have Air
Quality Alerts in place over parts of the Pacific Northwest, the northern
Rockies, and central Rockies. There is also the expectation for breezy
winds and dry thunderstorms in parts of the Northwest, prompting the SPC
to issue a couple Elevated Risks for fire weather conditions today. Red
Flag Warnings are in place for much of Northern California, central
Oregon, and as far east as eastern Wyoming.

The third hazard deals with areas of precipitation through early morning
Sunday. The first is in the Northwest where much above normal atmospheric
moisture content aloft and an approaching upper level disturbance should
trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could
produce locally heavy downpours and may result in flash flooding,
especially in burn scar areas. There are Marginal Risks for both severe
weather and Excessive Rainfall for portions of the Northwest today. Also,
a frontal boundary draped over Florida will lead to daily rounds of
showers and storms in the Sunshine State, while a passing frontal system
Saturday potentially brings strong-to-severe thunderstorms from the
central High Plains to the Great Lakes. Lastly, a tropical disturbance
near the Yucatan Peninsula has a 60% chance of development over the next 5
days in the Bay of Campeche and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Interests
along the western Gulf Coast should monitor this tropical feature closely
as it could bring significant rainfall totals to the region beginning
Sunday and lasting into the first half of next week.

Mullinax

Graphics are available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx ndfd.php