Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Valid 00Z Tue Sep 14 2021 - 00Z Thu Sep 16 2021

...Tropical Storm Nicholas to produce torrential rainfall, strong winds,
and high surf from the Texas coast to southern Louisiana, with
life-threatening storm surge and flooding possible; High Risk of Excessive
Rainfall along the Upper Texas Coast today...

...Severe weather possible from the northern Great Plains to the Great
Lakes and Northeast...

...A hotter than normal mid-September in store across most of the
contiguous U.S.;Excessive Heat Warnings issued in parts of the
Southwest....

Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to track north this afternoon, just off
of the coast of south Texas.  With its current motion expected to
continue, Nicholas is forecast to move onshore along the coast of central
Texas later this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are expected along
portions of the middle Texas coast beginning this afternoon.  Hurricane
conditions are possible by late this afternoon and there is the danger of
life-threatening storm surge inundation from Port Aransas to San Luis
Pass, Texas.  Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and
Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week.  Rainfall amounts
totaling 8 to 16 inches, with locally higher amounts, are possible --
potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban
flooding.  The Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight the upper
Texas coast with a High Risk for flash flooding through the remainder of
today and the overnight -- indicating that widespread flash flooding can
be expected across this region.  

Elsewhere, a slow-moving front currently extends from the northern
Mid-Atlantic states all the way back into the Great Basin.  Low pressure
developing along the boundary is currently supporting shower and
thunderstorm development across portions of the northern Great Plains and
Upper Midwest.  As these storms continue to develop, scattered strong to
severe storms are possible from eastern South Dakota and southern
Minnesota/northern Iowa into Wisconsin later this afternoon and tonight. 
Strong to severe storms are also possible farther east along the front
across portions of northern Pennsylvania, southern New York, and New
Jersey.  On Tuesday, the area of low pressure over the Midwest will
continue to strengthen as it tracks northeast across the Upper Great
Lakes.  Storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the low's
trailing cold front, with isolated to widely scattered severe storms
possible Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley
and the Northeast.

Temperatures will remain above their seasonal averages across much of the
Lower 48 through midweek.  Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect
through this evening along the lower Colorado River Basin into
southwestern Arizona -- where afternoon temperatures are once again
climbing well above 100F.

Pereira 

Graphics are available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx ndfd.php