Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

Valid 12Z Thu Sep 16 2021 - 12Z Sat Sep 18 2021

...Tropical Depression Nicholas is forecast to slowly dissipate as a
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall remains in effect over parts of the
Central Gulf Coast this morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the central
Gulf coast through Saturday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains today...

...There is an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Northern
Plains, Rockies and into the Great Basin...

Tropical Depression Nicholas will weaken considerably today as it slowly
moves northward across central Louisiana. Nicholas will eventually
dissipate tonight, but will continue to pose flash flooding threats to the
central Gulf coast into the weekend. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
leading to flash flooding is in effect for parts of the central Gulf coast
through Friday as Nicholas continues to pull a substantial amount of
tropical moisture into the region, where multiple inches of rain are
expected. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms are also possible across
much of the Southeast and East Coast through Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, a cold front will bring thunderstorm activity to the
Northern/Central Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley through Friday
evening. A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect for those
areas today. Thunderstorm activity is forecast to spread into the Lower
Great Lakes region Friday evening.

A Pacific low pressure system will begin impacting the Pacific Northwest
on Friday morning and continue doing so through the weekend. Several
inches of rain are forecast to fall, particularly over higher elevations.
This system will move into the Rockies by Sunday, but surface troughing on
its backside will continue to generate rainfall over the Northwest. Freeze
warnings and frost advisories are in effect from northeastern Washington
to northwestern Montana as a cooler Pacific airmass rolls in behind the
cold front. Highs over much of the Northwest will be in the low to mid 60s
which is between 15-20 degrees below average for this time of year.
Temperatures will warm up considerably over the Northern Plains on
Saturday as an upper-level ridge settles over the region. Highs are likely
to be in the upper 80s into the low 90s which is between 15-20 degrees
above average for this time of year. There is an Elevated Risk of fire
weather for parts of the Northern Plains, Rockies and Great Basin through
Friday due to the warm temperatures and higher winds.

Kebede

Graphics are available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx ndfd.php