Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 20 2021 - 00Z Wed Sep 22 2021

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Tennessee Valley/Southeast through Monday morning...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains...

...There is an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the western
third of the country through Monday morning...

An upper-level low over the Middle Mississippi and Western Ohio Valleys
and abundant moisture over the Southeast/Tennessee Valley into parts of
the Ohio Valley will produce showers and thunderstorms over the region
through Monday. Some of the thunderstorms will produce heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of Tennessee Valley/Southeast through Monday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers through Monday
morning.  The excessive rainfall threat weakens slightly over parts of the
Tennessee Valley and the Southeast Coast on Monday into Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Upper Midwest roughly southwestward
to the Great Basin will move eastward to the Great Lakes and southward to
the Gulf Coast by Tuesday evening.  Showers and thunderstorms will develop
along and ahead of the boundary starting overnight Sunday over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains that will move into the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes by Monday evening.

On Tuesday, the front will intersect the moisture over the Tennessee
Valley, increasing the threat of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Furthermore, upper-level energy moving across
the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies will produce rain with wet
snow at the highest elevations of the Northern Rockies/Northern
Intermountain Region ending by Monday evening.

Additionally, dry conditions and gusty winds across the West led to an
Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the western third of the
country through Monday morning. Therefore, Red Flag Warnings are out for
parts of California and Colorado. Moreover, temperatures will be 10 to 15
degrees below average over parts of the Northern Rockies into the Northern
Plains.  Therefore, Freeze Watches are up over parts of Idaho and Freeze
Watches over parts of Colorado.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics are available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx ndfd.php