Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Valid 12Z Thu Sep 23 2021 - 12Z Sat Sep 25 2021

...A strong, slow-moving cold front will bring additional heavy rains and
possibly strong to severe thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday,
before moving into New England on Friday...

...Strong winds and hazardous beach conditions are expected across
portions of the Great Lakes on Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along a strong,
slow-moving cold front as it moves across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
on Thursday.  A very moist airmass surging north along the front, along
with its slow movement will support redeveloping storms, with locally
heavy rainfall accumulations likely. Flash flood watches are in effect for
at least parts of Thursday from northern Virginia to southern New York. 
In addition to the heavy rains, there is a risk for strong thunderstorms
producing damaging winds to develop across portions of the central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday as well.

The front will continue to move slowly east on Friday, shifting the focus
for heavy rain and possible flash flooding into New England.  Conditions
will remain favorable for a few severe thunderstorms to develop as well --
producing damaging winds and even a few tornadoes across portions of New
England on Friday.

Across South Florida, the front is expected to remain, supporting shower
and thunderstorms for the new few days, with heavy rainfall and localized
flooding possible.

Across the Great Lakes, an area of low pressure associated with the front
will move slowly north across Lake Huron today -- producing additional
rains across the upper Great Lakes region, along with strong winds and
hazardous beach conditions along the shores of Lake Huron and Lake
Michigan on Thursday.

A few thunderstorms are possible over the Southwest beginning late
Thursday and cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Friday.  Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions
are expected through Friday.

Pereira

Graphics are available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx ndfd.php