Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Valid 12Z Fri Sep 24 2021 - 12Z Sun Sep 26 2021

...Isolated instances of flash flooding possible across parts of New
England, southern Florida, and the Southwest through this weekend...

...After a brief taste of autumn, well above average temperatures return
to the Northern Plains by Saturday...

A slow moving cold front pushing across the Northeast is expected to
continue producing moderate to locally heavy rain across parts of New
England today, with a few severe thunderstorms not out of the question as
well. As the frontal boundary reaches central Maine on Saturday, it is
expected to stall and lead to lingering showers. Widespread rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts, may lead to isolated
instances of flash flooding. A Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall has been issued for today across New England and for Saturday
throughout most of Maine and coastal sections of New England. Farther
south, this same cold front is currently draped over southern Florida and
will be the focus for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through
the weekend across the southern half of the peninsula. The biggest concern
with these storms will be the possibility of flash and urban flooding.

Elsewhere, an unsettled weather pattern is in store for the Southwest
thanks to a nearby upper-level low pressure system helping funnel
monsoonal moisture into the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are forecast to potentially impact parts of Arizona, southwest New Mexico,
and the Low Desert of Southern California. A few of these storms could
produce intense rainfall rates and result in flash flooding. To highlight
the concern, a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall has been issued for
today and Saturday across this section of the country.

Temperature-wise, outside of New England much of the East will enjoy
temperatures near or slightly below average through this upcoming weekend
under a controlling high pressure system. The opposite is in store for the
central U.S., as comfortable temperatures today are set to be replaced by
well above average temperatures on Saturday. This is especially the case
across the Northern Plains with highs jumping into the 80s by Saturday
(nearly 20 degrees warmer than today).

Snell

Graphics are available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php