Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Oct 01 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 02 2021 - 00Z Mon Oct 04 2021

...Threat of heavy rain decreases by tonight across southeastern Texas...

...Showers and thunderstorms over the Plains will progress across the
Ohio and Mississippi Valleys through this weekend...

A slow-moving frontal boundary extending through the Great Plains is
forecast to move more quickly toward the east during the next couple of
days.   Moisture streaming north from the western Gulf of Mexico will
continue to support the threat of heavy rain across southeastern Texas
this afternoon into the evening.  By later tonight, the upper-level trough
over the southern High Plains is forecast to lift further to the northeast
and merge with another upper trough drifting toward the Great Lakes.  This
will end the heavy rain threat over southeastern Texas later tonight as
the main energy associated with the entire system will shift into the Ohio
and Mississippi Valleys, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected through much of this weekend.  Although widespread excessive
rainfall is not expected in these areas, some localized heavy rainfall is
possible with some of the stronger thunderstorms.  By Sunday, showers and
some thunderstorms are expected to overspread the lower Great Lakes as
well as approach the spine of the Appalachians.  New England should
see a steady rain developing through the day on Sunday as a back door
cold front sneaks in ahead of a low pressure system centered over the
Great Lakes.

Temperatures will be above normal over the eastern half of the country as
return flow develops ahead of the low pressure and frontal systems.  A
nice stretch of fine weather along the East Coast will extend into the
weekend as the rain from the Ohio Valley approaches.  Meanwhile,
upper-level ridging ahead of the next upper trough will allow the
temperatures to be 10 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the
northern Plains this weekend.  In contrast, the temperatures over the
southern Rockies and southern High Plains will be slightly below average. 
Elsewhere, Air Quality Alerts are in effect over parts of the San Joaquin
Valley through Sunday.

Kong


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php