Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 344 AM EDT Sun Oct 03 2021 Valid 12Z Sun Oct 03 2021 - 12Z Tue Oct 05 2021 ...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into parts of the Great Lakes through Monday morning... ...Air Quality Alerts over the San Joaquin Valley through Monday... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the Northern High Plains... A quasi-stationary front extending from the Northeast to the Great Lakes then southwestward to the Southern Plains will remain primarily stationary through Tuesday. Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the Central Gulf Coast, Ohio Valley, and the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary, with some storms producing heavy rain from the Central Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into parts of the Great Lakes through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. The threat of excessive rainfall will move to parts of the Central Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Southern Appalachians as well as parts of the Northeast on Monday into Tuesday morning. Rain will continue over the Northeast through Tuesday. The showers and thunderstorms will slowly expand into parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast overnight Sunday into Monday. Meanwhile, on late Monday morning, moisture will start to stream into Southern California and the Southwest as upper-level energy begins to move over Southern California. The moisture and energy will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of Southern California and the Southwest overnight Monday into Tuesday. Furthermore, the smoke from wildfires will lead to poor air quality over the San Joaquin Valley of California, where Air Quality Alerts are in effect through Monday. Additionally, an upper-level ridge will develop over parts of the Rockies as temperatures will become 10 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the Northern High Plains. Ziegenfelder Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php