Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Mon Oct 04 2021

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 04 2021 - 12Z Wed Oct 06 2021

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Great Lake into parts of the Northeast and from the Central Gulf Coast to
the Southeast/Southern Appalachians through Tuesday morning...

...Air Quality Alerts over the San Joaquin Valley through Monday...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains...

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Northeast to the Great Lakes
then southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain primarily
stationary as a low develops over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley by
Wednesday.  Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over
the Central Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes and Northeast.  Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary. Some storms
produce heavy rain from the Central Gulf Coast to the Southeast/Southern
Appalachians and over Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast.  Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Lower Great Lake into parts of the Northeast and from the Central Gulf
Coast to the Southeast/Southern Appalachians through Tuesday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.   The threat
of excessive rainfall will increase to a Slight Risk over the Central Gulf
Coast, Southeast, and Southern Appalachians on Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. Rain will continue over the Northeast through Tuesday evening.
The showers and thunderstorms will slowly expand into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast on Monday.

Meanwhile, moisture will stream into Southern California and the Southwest
as upper-level energy begins to move over Southern California.  The
moisture and energy will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest overnight Monday into Tuesday.
Additionally, a front will move into Pacific Northwest on Tuesday,
producing light rain over parts of the Northwest into Northern California

Furthermore, the smoke from wildfires will lead to poor air quality over
the San Joaquin Valley of California, where Air Quality Alerts are in
effect through Monday.  Additionally, an upper-level ridge will develop
over parts of the Rockies as temperatures will become 10 to 25 degrees
above average over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php