Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Tue Oct 05 2021

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 05 2021 - 12Z Thu Oct 07 2021

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central Gulf Coast through Wednesday morning...

...Air Quality Alerts over the San Joaquin Valley through Wednesday...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains; there is an Elevated Risk of Fire Weather
over the Northern High Plains into parts of the Pacific Northwest...

A Developing upper-level low over Lower Mississippi Valley will have a
prolonged northwestward movement to the Middle Mississippi Valley by
Thursday.  The circulation around the upper-level low will stream moisture
northward over the Central Gulf Coast, extending into roughly the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes by Wednesday into Thursday.  The moisture will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms over the Central Gulf Coast/Southeast
into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic, producing heavy rain through Thursday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas
of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially
affecting larger rivers through Wednesday morning.

The Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall moves to the Southern
Appalachians/Tennessee Valley on Wednesday into Thursday morning. In
addition, a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall will continue over parts of
the Central Gulf Coast, also on Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, moisture will stream into parts of Southern
California/Southwest through late tonight.  The moisture and upper-level
energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over the region
that will push northward into parts of the Great Basin and
Southern/Central Rockies by Wednesday morning before dissipating by
Wednesday afternoon.

Furthermore, the smoke from wildfires will lead to poor air quality over
the San Joaquin Valley of California, where Air Quality Alerts are in
effect through Wednesday.  Additionally, an upper-level ridge will develop
over parts of the Rockies into the Great Lakes as temperatures will become
10 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the Northern/Central High
Plains.  The above-average temperatures, lowering relative humidity, and
gusty wind lead to an Elevated Risk of Fire Weather over the Northern High
Plains into parts of the Pacific Northwest.  Moreover, a front will come
onshore over the Pacific Northwest today, moving to the Northern High
Plains to the Great Basin by Thursday.  The system will produce rain over
parts of the Pacific Northwest/Northern California that will slowly taper
off to a small area over the Pacific Northwest by Thursday


Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php