Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Tue Oct 05 2021

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 06 2021 - 00Z Fri Oct 08 2021

...Heavy rain and flash flooding likely across parts of the Central Gulf
Coast and Southern Appalachians through Thursday...

...Severe weather and isolated instances of flash flooding possible across
central Arizona this evening...

...Well above average temperatures as well as the potential for Critical
Fire Weather found throughout the Northern Plains...

A pair of upper-level lows, one currently over the Southwest and the other
over the Lower Mississippi Valley, will help fuel active weather across
both ends of the country through the middle of the week. Starting in the
Southeast, rich moisture flowing out of the Gulf of Mexico and ahead of
the aforementioned upper-level low will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing intense downpours from the Central Gulf
Coast to the Southern Appalachians. A slow-moving frontal boundary sliding
down the Mid-Atlantic will also help focus a lot of atmospheric moisture
into the region. This weather pattern is not expected to change much
through at least Thursday, which means areas experiencing heavy rain today
could be in for several more rounds before the week is over. A Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued through tonight
across far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, extending
into Wednesday for areas in and around the Emerald Coast of Florida. A
Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall has also been issued on Thursday
across parts of northern Georgia, northeast Alabama, and southeast
Tennessee. Flash Flood Watches are in effect as well and extend from
southeast Tennessee to the western Florida Panhandle. Additional rainfall
amounts of the 2 to 4 inches can be expected here, with locally higher
amounts. 

Farther west, a stormy evening and night is in store for central Arizona
and surrounding areas of the Southwest and central Great Basin. An
upper-level low is forecast to lift across the region tonight before being
absorbed into an approaching deep upper-level trough. Isolated severe
thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes
are possible. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe weather across central Arizona through early Wednesday
morning. A few instances of heavy rain resulting in flash flooding is also
a concern. Otherwise, a rather potent cold front entering the Northwest
and West Coast this evening will produce chances for showers and high
elevation snow across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Basin,
before reaching the Northern Rockies and Central Great Basin by Thursday
morning.

Outside of the West and cloud covered Southeast, much of the Lower 48 are
forecast to experience above average temperatures through Thursday. The
greatest anomalies and potential hazards associated with the warm
temperatures are expected to be found across the Northern Plains. High
temperatures reaching into the low 90s today and upper 80s tomorrow,
combined with low relative humidity and gusty winds may lead lead to
Critical Fire Weather across the western Dakotas. This means wildfires
will have the potential to spread uncontrollably. Red Flag Warnings have
been issued and extend from north-central Montana to western North Dakota
and northwest South Dakota.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php