Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Wed Oct 06 2021

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 07 2021 - 00Z Sat Oct 09 2021

...Additional areas of heavy rain and flash flooding likely across parts
of the Southeast and Southern Appalachians through Friday morning...

...Well above average temperatures and Critical Fire Weather found across
the Northern Plains this evening...

...Showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow expected throughout the
Intermountain West and Northern/Central Rockies over the next couple of
days...

A large and rather slow-moving upper level low continues to churn over the
Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon, producing numerous showers and
thunderstorms from the Midwest to the Southeast as it inches northward.
Ahead of this system, warm and moist air is flowing out of the Gulf of
Mexico and into the southeastern United States. A few storms will have the
potential to turn severe from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Southeast this
evening, particularly across middle Tennessee, northeast Alabama, and
northwest Georgia. Otherwise, the main concern overnight and into the day
on Thursday will be the possibility of flash flooding. Numerous parts of
the Southeast, central Gulf Coast, and Southern Appalachians have seen
more than double their normal rainfall over the last week. This leaves
soil and ground conditions extremely susceptible to flooding if areas of
heavy rain develop. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall is
in effect through Thursday morning across parts of the Florida Panhandle
and southern Appalachians. The threat of flash flooding remains across the
Southern Appalachians on Thursday, with a Moderate Risk of Excessive
Rainfall in effect for parts of western North Carolina, Upstate South
Carolina, and far northeastern Georgia. The aforementioned upper-level low
is forecast to finally lift north and into the Midwest by Friday,
therefore associated shower activity is expected to spread into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. The stagnant tropical airmass and a developing low
pressure system off the Carolina coast will allow for unsettled weather to
remain across the Southeast through the end of the week.

Farther west, showers and thunderstorms are also expected to dampen the
Intermountain West and parts of the northern/central Rockies through at
least Friday. A deep upper level trough extending down the West Coast and
a slow moving cold front will help funnel Pacific moisture into the
region. High elevation snow is also possible, along with isolated flash
flooding.

Above average temperatures remain rather pronounced nearly everywhere east
of the Rockies over the next few days. High temperatures 10 to 20 degrees
above average this afternoon across the Northern Plains, along with low
relative humidity and gusty winds, could lead to Critical Fire Weather.
Red Flag Warnings have been issued for the western Dakotas and eastern
Montana to highlight the concern for potential wildfires to spread
uncontrollably. While temperatures gradually cool to near normal across
the Northern Plains by Friday, thanks to an approaching cold front,
thermometers are set to continue rising across the Southern and Central
Plains. In fact, high temperatures may reach back into the 90s across
parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas on Friday.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php