Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Thu Oct 07 2021

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 07 2021 - 12Z Sat Oct 09 2021

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Appalachian through Friday morning...

... Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average over the Plains
into the Upper Midwest...

An upper-level low currently over the Middle Mississippi Valley will
slowly move northward to the Great Lakes by Friday.  The circulation
around the upper-level low will stream moisture northward over the Central
Gulf Coast to the Southeast, extending into roughly the Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes on Thursday and coming to an end by Saturday.  The moisture will aid
in producing showers and thunderstorms over the Central Gulf
Coast/Southeast into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes, producing heavy rain in
some areas through Friday.

Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over
the Southern Appalachian through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams
may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The threat of excessive
rainfall will lessen on Friday into Saturday to a Marginal Risk over parts
of the Central Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic. In addition, on
Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will extend into parts of the Great
Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Northern High Plains southwestward
to Great Basin will slowly move eastward to the Northern/Central Plains to
the Southern Rockies by Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop along and near the boundary over parts of the Great Basin into the
Northern Rockies, extending into parts of the Southwest by Friday evening.
 Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop near the boundary
over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Northern Plains on Friday,
continuing into Saturday morning.

Furthermore, an upper-level ridge will develop over parts of the Upper
Midwest as temperatures will become 10 to 20 degrees above average over
parts of the Plains into the Upper Midwest.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php