Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Thu Oct 07 2021

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 08 2021 - 00Z Sun Oct 10 2021

...Heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding continues overnight
across parts of the Southern Appalachians, Southeast, and eastern
Tennessee Valley...

...Record-breaking heat forecast throughout the Central and Southern
Plains beginning on Friday...

...Unsettled weather found across the Intermountain West, Northern
Rockies, and Northern Plains...

A pesky upper-level low pressure system that has led to several rounds of
heavy rain across the southeastern U.S. is finally lifting north and
expected to reach the Upper Great Lakes by Friday. However, the tropical
airmass left behind will continue to fuel showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing intense downpours between the Southern Appalachians
and eastern Tennessee Valley. A few isolated instances of heavy rain will
also remain possible across Georgia into early Friday. A Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect across western North
Carolina, Upstate South Carolina, and northeast Georgia through tonight.
Soils in these regions remain saturated after several days of scattered
thunderstorms, leaving areas extremely susceptible to flash flooding when
new rounds of thunderstorms develop. The heavy rain threat is forecast to
shift slightly north and east on Friday, into the Central Appalachians and
Carolinas, but overall the flash flood risk should diminish significantly
compared to the last few days. Meanwhile, a developing coastal low
pressure system offshore the Southeast is expected to produce lingering
showers over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the beginning of the
weekend.

For central and south-central sections of the Lower 48, the main weather
story will be associated with potential record-breaking heat beginning on
Friday. An upper-level ridge ahead of a deep trough entering the western
U.S. will allow for high temperatures to soar into the 90s across the
Central and Southern Plains. These temperatures equate to around 10 to 20
degrees above average and could threaten several daily high temperature
records, with the warmest day forecast to occur on Saturday.

Otherwise, a deep upper-level trough currently entering the West Coast is
expected to usher in below average temperatures and chances for
precipitation. Showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow is likely
to be found across parts of the Intermountain West and Northern/Central
Rockies over the next few days. A few instances of flash flooding are
possible between northern Nevada and southeast Idaho. By Saturday, as a
low pressure system ejects into the Northern Plains, isolated severe
thunderstorms are not out of the question across eastern North Dakota and
northwest Minnesota.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php