Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 PM EDT Fri Oct 08 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 09 2021 - 00Z Mon Oct 11 2021

...Developing coastal low to produce showers, gusty winds, and coastal
flooding along the Mid-Atlantic this weekend...

...Anomalous and potentially record-breaking heat found across the
central/southern Plains through Saturday...

...Potent cold front and associated areas of low pressure to contribute to
unsettled weather across the Intermountain West and northern/central
Rockies, while eventually sparking robust thunderstorms throughout the
southern Plains on Sunday...

The weather system that has soaked the Southeast over the last few days is
continuing to slowly push eastward, but is forecast to stall along the
Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coastline this weekend. As a result, locally
heavy rain will remain a concern tonight across parts of the Southern
Appalachians and Carolinas. Meanwhile, a developing area of low pressure
to the southeast of North Carolina will aid in producing lingering showers
and shift the heavy rain threat toward eastern North Carolina on Saturday.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this disturbance for potential
subtropical development. Regardless, unsettled weather and gusty winds,
along with coastal flooding, can be expected through Sunday along coastal
sections of the Mid-Atlantic.

For the central and south-central U.S. mainland, a building ridge of high
pressure aloft will bring the potential of record-breaking heat beginning
this afternoon and continuing into the weekend, with high temperatures
forecast to soar well into the 90s across the central and southern Plains.
These temperatures equate to around 10 to 25 degrees above average with
the warmest day forecast to occur on Saturday. Additionally, the warm
temperatures combined with gusty winds and low relative humidity may lead
to elevated fire weather concerns. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather
Watches have been issued across parts of the central Plains and southern
High Plains.

In contrast, a deep upper-level trough swinging through the western U.S.
will usher in below average temperatures and chances for precipitation
across much of the Intermountain West and Rockies through the beginning of
the weekend. In fact, snow is forecast for the highest mountain ranges.
Scattered showers and some thunderstorms are also expected for the lower
elevations, a few storms could turn severe and produce isolated flash
flooding between northern Nevada and southeast Idaho through tonight. By
Saturday, a developing low pressure system ejecting into the northern
Plains will likely bring a period of enhanced rainfall together with gusty
winds across the region. Isolated severe thunderstorms are not out of the
question for parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota from Saturday night into
early Sunday. As the aforementioned upper-level trough enters the southern
High Plains late on Sunday, severe thunderstorms may develop ahead of an
associated cold front situated between the middle Mississippi Valley and
southern Plains. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe weather centered around Sunday evening across parts
of eastern Oklahoma and northern Texas.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php