Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 AM EDT Sat Oct 09 2021

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 09 2021 - 12Z Mon Oct 11 2021

...A wavy front will bring showers, gusty winds, and coastal flooding
along the Mid-Atlantic through this weekend...

...Anomalous heat across the central/southern Plains this weekend will be
followed by strong to severe thunderstorms late Sunday into early Monday...

...A surge of cold air behind a potent cold front will set the stage for a
wintry weather event for the northern/central Rockies on Monday...

An increasingly active weather pattern is taking shape across the U.S.
during the next few days as a rapid surge of cold air mass is forecast to
push through the western U.S. against a slow-moving front near the East
Coast while a couple of low pressure systems are forecast to form in the
mid-section of the country.  First of all, the slow-moving regime in the
eastern U.S. will continue to allow unsettled weather to persist through
the weekend and into early next week for much of the East Coast.  Waves of
low pressure are forecast to form near a stalled front.  The National
Hurricane Center is monitoring the potential for tropical cyclone
development amid these low pressure waves near the North Carolina coast
today into early Sunday.  Regardless of development, unsettled weather and
gusty winds, along with coastal flooding, can be expected along coastal
sections of the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend.  Farther north across
much of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and into the southern
Appalachians, a slow-moving upper trough/low will help trigger additional
clusters of showers and thunderstorms containing locally heavy downpours. 
These showers/storms should diminish on Sunday as the upper trough finally
shows signs of dissipation.

For the central and south-central U.S. mainland, a building ridge of high
pressure aloft will bring the potential of record-breaking heat especially
today as temperatures are forecast to soar well into the 90s to near 100
across the central and southern Plains this afternoon.  Additionally, the
warm temperatures combined with gusty winds and low relative humidity may
lead to elevated fire weather concerns.  Red Flag Warnings and Fire
Weather Watches have been issued across parts of the central to southern
High Plains.

In contrast, a deep upper-level trough swinging through the western U.S.
will usher in below average temperatures and chances for precipitation
across much of the Intermountain West and Rockies into the weekend.  In
fact, snow is forecast for the highest mountain ranges today.  Scattered
showers and some thunderstorms are also expected for the lower elevations
today across the central Rockies.  Meanwhile, a developing low pressure
system ejecting into the northern Plains will likely bring a period of
enhanced rainfall today across the region, along with the possibility of
severe thunderstorms for parts of the area into early Sunday.  As this
system begins to move into the upper Great Lakes on Sunday, another low
pressure system is forecast to rapidly develop over the southern High
Plains.  This system is expected to bring a higher threat of severe
thunderstorms into Oklahoma on Sunday along with heavy rain.

Last but not least, another cold air mass surging behind a potent cold
front is forecast to move through the Pacific Northwest on Sunday.  This
will set the stage for the first potentially significant wintry weather
event of the season for the northern/central Rockies on Monday where a
large low pressure system is forecast to form.

Kong/Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php