Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 14 2021 - 00Z Sat Oct 16 2021

...Heavy rain and the potential for considerable flash flooding possible
through early Thursday morning between south-central Texas and southeast
Oklahoma...

...Light snow and gusty winds to gradually diminish overnight across the
Northern High Plains...

...Well above average temperatures forecast across the eastern third of
the United States as cooler temperatures remain over the Northern/Central
Plains, Rockies, and Intermountain West...

Much of the active weather occurring across the Lower 48 through the end
of the week is associated with an amplified upper-level pattern, with a
deep trough located over the western half of the country. At the surface,
a strong area of low pressure is currently located over the Northern
Plains and an attached cold front extends southward into the Southern
Plains. This frontal boundary is forecast to stall and linger between the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains over the next few days.
Meanwhile, ample tropical moisture surging into the south-central U.S.
tonight can be traced back to the remnants of Pamela as it traverses
northern Mexico. The combination of a slow moving frontal boundary and
sufficient atmospheric moisture will create an environment ripe for
thunderstorms capable of producing intense downpours. Several inches of
rain are possible between south-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma
tonight. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued
for this area to highlight the concern. Numerous flash flood events are
likely, with significant events possible in low-lying and urban locations.
Flash Flood Watches are in effect and extend from far southwest Missouri
to south-central Texas. The heavy rain threat may also extend into parts
of western Arkansas and the Middle Mississippi Valley tonight as well. By
Thursday, the heavy rain threat is forecast to slightly diminish and
stretch between eastern Texas and the Midwest.

Farther north and on the cold side of the system, light snow and gusty
winds are forecast to gradually wane throughout the Northern High Plains
this evening. Additionally, a few lingering snow showers are likely over
the Northern and Central Rockies through Friday morning. In total, over a
foot of snow was reported to have fallen from this first winter storm of
the season across parts of the Northern Rockies, as well as the Black
Hills of South Dakota. As the aforementioned area of low pressure exits
into south-central Canada on Thursday, cold temperatures will be left in
its wake. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have been issued across
much of Nebraska, northeast Colorado, and northwest Kansas.

Speaking of temperatures, the rest of the Northern/Central High Plains,
Rockies, and Intermountain West can expect below average temperatures to
persist through Friday. Widespread below freezing nighttime temperatures
are forecast across the mountainous terrain. Meanwhile, the eastern third
of the country will experience the opposite with widespread above average
temperatures found from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes and
Northeast. Highs 10 to 20 degrees above average will equate to
temperatures into the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures will also remain quite
mild and only drop into the 60s at night.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php