Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 15 2021 - 00Z Sun Oct 17 2021

...Isolated instances of flash flooding possible across the Middle
Mississippi and Ohio valleys through Friday evening...

...Severe weather threat increases later on Friday for the Ohio Valley and
western Tennessee ahead of a developing low pressure system...

...Contrasting temperatures between the cold West and warm East to
gradually dissipate by the weekend...

The main weather features responsible for shower and thunderstorm activity
over the next few days will be found across the south-central and
eventually the eastern U.S. by early this weekend. A cold front currently
extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains is forecast remain
quasi-stationary over the Ohio and Middle Mississippi valleys through
Friday afternoon as an area of low pressure begins to develop along the
boundary. Meanwhile, the aforementioned cold front is expected to surge
southward across the Southern Plains and reach the Gulf Coast by Friday
night. Isolated instances of flash flooding will remain a concern tonight
and Friday throughout the Ohio Valley and parts of the Lower/Middle
Mississippi valleys. Additionally, ahead of the cold front and near a
strengthening low pressure system, severe thunderstorms may develop from
Ohio southwestward through Kentucky and into western Tennessee on Friday.
Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible.
Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will shift eastward on
Saturday and extend from the Northeast to the southern Appalachians as the
advancing cold front pushes into the region.

Elsewhere, an upper-level trough swinging over the Central Rockies tonight
will produce areas of scattered snow showers throughout the mountainous
terrain. Unsettled weather will also be found across parts of the Northern
Cascades and western Washington as a slow moving cold front approaches the
Pacific Northwest.

Unseasonably warm temperatures ahead of the previously mentioned cold
front will remain over the eastern U.S. through early this weekend. High
temperatures are forecast to reach the 70s and 80s, with low temperatures
only dropping into the 60s. In fact, dozens of daily warm minimum
temperature records are likely to fall over the eastern U.S. on Friday and
Saturday. Meanwhile, below average temperatures found throughout the
Northern/Central Plains, Rockies, and Intermountain West will gradually
filter into the Midwest and Southern Plains on Friday before reaching the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys by Saturday. The coldest temperatures are
expected to remain locked across the Rockies and portions of the
northern/central High Plains tonight before milder temperatures return
this weekend. Freeze Warnings remain in effect tonight across western
North Dakota, northeast/southwest Colorado, and eastern Utah.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php