Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 324 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021 Valid 12Z Sat Oct 16 2021 - 12Z Mon Oct 18 2021 ...Severe weather and locally heavy rainfall in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today... ...Seasonally cooler temperatures to overtake the East late Saturday into Sunday; chilly in the Heartland this morning but warming up by Sunday... ...Elevated fire weather conditions in Southern California; wet pattern returns to the Pacific Northwest... An active day is on tap for both the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as a cold front associated with a wave of low pressure races towards the East Coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will track through these regions with some thunderstorms potentially becoming severe. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk area for severe weather from eastern Pennsylvania to Upstate New York. A soaking rain is also anticipated for much of New York and northern New England today. Drier conditions work their way towards the East Coast as high pressure builds in for the second half of the weekend, although lake effect showers keep some wet conditions around across the eastern Great Lakes and interior Northeast Sunday. The cold front extends as far south as The Sunshine State where refreshing humidity levels return to northern Florida on Sunday and eventually reaching South Florida on Monday. Temperature-wise, a cooler and more autumn-like air-mass starts out the weekend in the Heartland where a large portion of the Plains and Midwest are under either Freeze Warnings or Front Advisories this morning. After one more abnormally warm day along the East Coast, the aforementioned cold front ushers in this cooler temperature regime late Saturday and into Sunday. The Northern Plains and Midwest warm back up quickly by Sunday as a warm front lifts north of these regions. Farther west, after a seasonally mild day along the West Coast today, an approaching upper trough will inject cool Pacific air into the western third of the Lower 48 by Sunday and persist into the start of the upcoming week. The West Coast will also see a few weather hazards of note. Santa Ana winds look to stick around for one more day in Southern California prompting the issuance of Red Flag Warnings and an Elevated Risk for favorable fire weather conditions from the Storm Prediction Center. Farther up the coast, an upper trough will direct Pacific moisture at the Pacific Northwest. Far western Washington can expect periods of rain today but as a frontal system advances south down the coast, western Oregon and northern California will get in on the action by Sunday. The higher elevations of southwest Oregon, northern California, and the northern Nevada may also witness periods of snow late Sunday into Monday morning. Mullinax Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php